基于系统动力学的海洋生态承载力研究——以惠州市为例

发布时间：2018-04-05 10:47

本文选题：海洋生态承载力　切入点：系统动力学模型　出处：《海洋环境科学》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文以惠州市为例,构建了海洋生态承载力评价指标体系,分为压力类、支持力类和区域交流类3个目标层,包含人口、经济发展、环境污染与资源利用、资源供给能力、环境纳污能力、人类社会支持能力、产品交换等7个准则层。运用状态空间模型对惠州市2004~2013年10 a间的海洋生态承载力状况进行定量评价。结果显示:惠州市海洋生态承载力呈现波动变化,部分年份出现超载情况。2004~2008年,环境污染与资源利用是海洋生态系统主要的压力,2009年开始,经济发展成为主要压力。支持力水平总体平稳,且不断改善。利用系统动力学模型预测在现有发展模式下,由于经济增长过快,废水排放量和固废产生量增加,海洋生态承载力指数将逐年上升,2018~2020年将出现超载现象,为确保海洋生态承载力在可载范围内,惠州市需加快城市化进程,采用集约化增长方式,降低经济增长速度,提高污染物处理率。
[Abstract]:Taking Huizhou City as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of marine ecological carrying capacity, which is divided into three target layers: pressure, support and regional communication, including population, economic development, environmental pollution and resource utilization, resource supply capacity.The environment absorbs the pollution ability, the human society supports the ability, the product exchange and so on 7 criterion layer.The state space model was used to quantitatively evaluate the marine ecological carrying capacity of Huizhou during 2004-2013.The results show that the marine ecological carrying capacity of Huizhou city fluctuates, and overloading occurs in some years from 2004 to 2008. Environmental pollution and resource utilization are the main pressures of marine ecosystem. Since 2009, economic development has become the main pressure.The level of support is stable and constantly improving.Using the system dynamics model, it is predicted that under the existing development model, the marine ecological carrying capacity index will increase year by year because the economic growth is too fast, the amount of wastewater discharge and solid waste production will increase, and the marine ecological carrying capacity index will appear the phenomenon of overload from 2018 to 2020.In order to ensure that the marine ecological carrying capacity is within the range of carrying capacity, Huizhou should speed up the urbanization process, adopt intensive growth mode, reduce the economic growth rate and improve the disposal rate of pollutants.
【作者单位】：中山大学环境科学与工程学院;
【基金】：广东省厅局级项目“广东省海洋生态文明示范区建设标准”(粤海渔函【2013】855号)
【分类号】：X55;X826

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