天津沿海风暴潮特征及预报模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 08:12

本文选题：天津 + 风暴潮　；参考：《天津大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：天津位于渤海湾湾顶,自古以来就是风暴潮发生的重灾区。作为环渤海经济圈最重要的港口城市,天津社会经济发展迅速,对防灾减灾的要求也相应提高。因此,深入了解天津沿岸风暴潮特性,进一步提高风暴潮预测、预警水平,对于保证沿岸居民人身安全和财产安全具有重要意义。本文搜集了天津地区1950-2014年65年间的113次对天津滨海区域及附近有显著影响的风暴潮的观测数据,分析了天津沿岸风暴潮的特性,结果表明天津一年四季都有发生风暴潮灾的可能,并且8、10和11月是风暴潮灾发生的高峰期。将所得的风暴潮分为温带风暴和热带风暴两类,分别对两类风暴潮的特征进行了分析。对天津沿海风暴潮的成因进行了探讨,主要分析了天津沿海的风向频率、6级以上大风风向频率和8级以上大风的风向频率与增水的关系。利用耿贝尔分布对天津地区年最高潮位进行了分析,得到了不同重现期的潮位值。在特大值的处理方面,考察了天津沿海历史风暴潮,并将考证重现期定为400年,最终得到的耿贝尔理论频率曲线能够更好地拟合塘沽验潮站年最高潮位的经验累积频率点。详细分析了天津沿海地面沉降情况和海平面上升情况,对1950-2012年最高潮位进行沉降量校正后计算得出的天津沿海重现期高潮位明显增高。利用搜集的风暴潮实测增水资料与NCEP风场、气压场资料,建立增水的多元回归方程,建立了三种模型,分别对不同种类的风暴进行了回归分析,最终选取最优的回归方程。利用课题组水动力学模型和SWAN波浪,建立了风暴潮波流耦合模型,对典型风暴潮过程进行了回报,回报结果比较理想。并利用回报结果对渤海湾的风暴潮潮流场、增水场特征进行了分析。
[Abstract]:Tianjin is located at the top of the Bohai Bay Bay, has been a storm surge since ancient times.As the most important port city around the Bohai Sea economic circle, Tianjin's social economy develops rapidly, and the requirements for disaster prevention and mitigation are raised accordingly.Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the characteristics of storm surge along the coast of Tianjin and to further improve the prediction and early warning level of storm surge for ensuring the personal safety and property safety of coastal residents.In this paper, the observed data of 113 storm surges from 1950 to 2014 in Tianjin coastal area and its vicinity are collected, and the characteristics of storm surges along Tianjin coast are analyzed.The results show that storm surges may occur in Tianjin all the year round, and the peak periods of storm surges occur in October and November.The storm surges are divided into temperate storm and tropical storm, and the characteristics of the two storm surges are analyzed.In this paper, the causes of storm surge along Tianjin coast are discussed, and the relationship between wind direction frequency above class 6 and wind direction frequency above class 8 and water increase is analyzed.The annual highest tide level in Tianjin is analyzed by Geng Bell distribution, and the tidal level values of different recurrence periods are obtained.With regard to the treatment of extraordinarily large values, the historical storm surge along the coast of Tianjin is investigated, and the recurrence period is chosen as 400 years. Finally, the Geng Bell theoretical frequency curve can better fit the empirical accumulated frequency point of the highest tide level in Tanggu tidal station.The ground subsidence and sea level rise in Tianjin coastal area are analyzed in detail. The high tide level in the recurrence period of Tianjin coast is obviously increased after the settlement correction of the highest tide level in 1950-2012.Based on the collected data of storm surge and NCEP wind field and pressure field, the multivariate regression equation of water increase is established, and three kinds of models are established. The regression analysis of different kinds of storm is carried out, and the optimal regression equation is selected.Based on the hydrodynamic model and SWAN wave, the coupling model of storm surge and current is established. The typical storm surge process is rewarded, and the result is satisfactory.The characteristics of storm surge tidal field and water increasing field in Bohai Bay are analyzed by using the return results.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P731.23;P731.34

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