CMIP5模式对中国近海气候特征模拟评估及预估

发布时间：2018-05-03 22:13

  本文选题：中国近海海温 + CMIP5　； 参考：《国家海洋环境预报中心》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：基于观测和再分析资料,利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征,但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海,集合平均与观测差别比较明显,在冬夏季偏差尤为显著。在年际尺度上,与观测数据对比,模式模拟海温与Nino3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势,从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明,ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。通过分析选定ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这五个模式为最优模式对中国近海海表温度变化成因进行分析。从最优模式多模式集合(MME)结果来看,1960-2005年东海和南海北部升温主要原因是黑潮流速增强导致的平流热输送增加,南海南部海温升高主要原因是感热通量和潜热通量释放减少。对未来不同RCP情景下的海表温度变化进行预估发现,在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势,最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃,两种不同情景下中国近海海表风速变化趋势空间分布相类似,在南海各模式模拟风速变化偏差较大,大部分最优模式均能模拟出东中国海偏南风增强,冬季风减弱的变化特征,并且都模拟出台湾岛东北侧黑潮流速增强,其流速变化分别为1cm/s、2.5cm/s。未来东中国海升温是净热通量变化和平流变化共同作用的,净热通量变化促进了南海升温。
[Abstract]:Based on the observational and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 of the 21 models to simulate the monthly, seasonal and interannual variation of SST in China's coastal waters was evaluated by using various indicators and methods. Multi-model sets can reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of offshore SST in the mean climate sense, but the values are underestimated to some extent. In Bohai Sea and Huang Hai, the difference between collective average and observation is obvious, especially in winter and summer. On an interannual scale, compared with observational data, the model simulated SST has little correlation with Nino3 exponent. From 1960 to 2002, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China increased obviously, and began to slow down in 2003. The evaluation results show that the eight models of ACCESS 1.0 BCC-CSM 1.1 and HadGEM2-ESU IPSL-CM5A-MRN CMCC-CMN FGOALS-g2 CNRM-CM5-2INMCM4 can simulate the variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in China. The five models of ACCESS 1.0 INMCM4 BCC-CSM1.1 IPSL-CM5A-MRMCC-CM are selected as the optimal models to analyze the causes of sea surface temperature variation in the coastal waters of China by analyzing the five models of ACCESS 1.0, INMCM4, BCC-CSM1.1 and IPSL-CM5A-MRCC-CM. From the results of MMEs of the optimal model, it is found that the increase of advection heat transport caused by the increase of Kuroshio velocity in the East China Sea and the northern part of the South China Sea from 1960 to 2005 is mainly due to the decrease of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux in the south of the South China Sea. Based on the prediction of sea surface temperature variation in different RCP scenarios, it is found that in the next 100 years, the sea surface temperature (SST) in China's coastal waters will increase obviously in the next 100 years under the RCP4.5 / RCP8.5 scenario, and the average temperature increase of the optimal multi-model set can reach 1.5 鈩，

本文编号：1840307