基于因子分析的沿海可再生能源开发结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 15:15

本文选题：沿海可再生能源 + 能源结构优化　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2012年我国能源消费量一举超过美国,成为世界上最大的能源消费国。我国能源消费结构中70%以上为煤炭,90%为化石能源,由此带来的环境问题和可持续发展问题日益突出。近年来我国在积极规划调整能源结构比例,倡导开发可再生能源,优化能源发展战略。沿海地区经济相对发达,能源需求量大,但传统能源十分稀缺且环境承载力弱。沿海地区具有海上风能、潮汐等沿海可再生能源优势,合理开发利用沿海可再生能源不仅能优化能源供给结构,而且能减轻地区环境压力,改善沿海地区能源结构的优良性。针对以上问题,本文探讨了沿海可再生能源结构优化评价指标体系,在此基础上研究沿海可再生能源结构综合评价与结构优化模型,并以大连为例进行研究,具体内容如下：首先,指标体系构建研究。在各种沿海可再生能源的特点分析的基础上,建立了沿海可再生能源指标体系,包括能源禀赋、经济、技术、环境、安全等五个方面,其中包括开发利用时间、能源转换效率、能源公司个数、开发成本、人均工资、生态影响指数、碳排放量、开发危险指数、开发可控指数在内的多个指标。其次,综合评价研究。根据评价指标的含义,调研了大连地区2010、2014、2020年潮汐能、潮流能、沿海风能、生物质能、太阳能等能源指标。利用因子分析法对标准化后的指标数据进行综合分析,获取四个综合因子(经济因子、技术因子、环境因子、安全因子)及其因子得分。指标对综合因子的方差贡献率大于75%,可以反映原样本空间的大部分信息。通过综合因子和指标数据对大连市2014年和2020年的沿海可再生能源结构进行评价,分别得到了考虑综合因子的能源开发利用优先顺序。综合因子得分将用于能源开发结构优化求解。再次,结构优化模型研究。基于构建的指标体系及其综合因子建立了以经济效益、碳排放、开发比例三者综合效益最大为目标的沿海可再生能源结构多目标优化模型,约束条件考虑综合因子和关键指标约束。模型引入目标函数和约束条件的控制系数,提高了模型的适用性,且有利于发挥决策者的主观能动性。最后,以大连为例进行实证研究。基于大连地区的调研数据,构建大连地区的沿海可再生能源结构优化模型并利用CPLEX进行求解,得到了2020年大连地区的沿海可再生能源结构,与已有模型进行对比分析,验证了模型的有效性；基于以上模型,分别优化了以经济效益、环境效益和综合效益为首要目标的三种情景下,2020年大连地区沿海可再生能源结构配比及各能源的开发量。研究成果可为大连沿海可再生能源开发利用政策制定的参考。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China's energy consumption surpassed that of the United States and became the largest energy consumer in the world. More than 70% of the energy consumption structure in China is fossil energy, and the environmental problems and sustainable development problems are becoming more and more prominent. In recent years, China is actively planning to adjust the proportion of energy structure, advocate the development of renewable energy, optimize energy development strategy. The coastal areas have developed economy and large energy demand, but the traditional energy is very scarce and the environmental carrying capacity is weak. Coastal areas have the advantages of offshore renewable energy such as wind energy and tidal energy. Reasonable exploitation and utilization of coastal renewable energy can not only optimize the energy supply structure but also alleviate the regional environmental pressure and improve the excellent energy structure of coastal areas. In view of the above problems, this paper discusses the evaluation index system of coastal renewable energy structure optimization, and on this basis studies the comprehensive evaluation and structural optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure, and takes Dalian as an example. The specific contents are as follows: first, the index system construction research. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of various coastal renewable energy sources, a coastal renewable energy index system has been established, which includes five aspects: energy endowment, economy, technology, environment and safety, including development and utilization time, energy conversion efficiency, etc. The number of energy companies, development costs, per capita wages, ecological impact index, carbon emissions, development risk index, development controllable index. Secondly, comprehensive evaluation research. According to the meaning of the evaluation index, the energy indexes such as tidal energy, coastal wind energy, biomass energy, solar energy and so on in Dalian are investigated. Four factors (economic factor, technical factor, environmental factor, safety factor) and their scores were obtained by comprehensive analysis of standardized index data by factor analysis. The variance contribution rate of the index to the synthetic factor is more than 75, which can reflect most of the information in the original space. The renewable energy structure of Dalian in 2014 and 2020 was evaluated by comprehensive factor and index data, and the priority order of energy development and utilization considering comprehensive factors was obtained respectively. The comprehensive factor score will be used to solve the optimization of energy development structure. Thirdly, the structure optimization model is studied. Based on the index system and its comprehensive factors, a multi-objective optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure is established, which aims at the maximum comprehensive benefit of economic benefit, carbon emission and development ratio. Constraints take into account comprehensive factors and key index constraints. The model introduces the objective function and the control coefficient of the constraint condition, which improves the applicability of the model and is helpful to give full play to the subjective initiative of the decision maker. Finally, take Dalian as an example to carry on the empirical research. Based on the investigation data of Dalian area, the optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure in Dalian area is constructed and solved by using CPLEX, and the coastal renewable energy structure of Dalian area in 2020 is obtained, which is compared with the existing model. The validity of the model is verified, and based on the above model, three scenarios with economic benefit, environmental benefit and comprehensive benefit as the primary objectives are optimized, and the ratio of renewable energy structure and the amount of energy development in Dalian coastal area in 2020 are optimized. The research results can be used as a reference for the development and utilization of renewable energy in Dalian coastal area.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P743

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