我国沿海省市风暴潮灾害脆弱性组合评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 07:10

本文选题：风暴潮灾害 + 脆弱性　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：沿海地区是我国经济社会最发达的地区，是我国经济社会发展的领航者，在我国社会经济发展中具有重要的战略地位。然而，随着全球气候的不断变化，愈加频繁的海洋灾害严重影响着我国沿海地区经济社会的可持续发展。风暴潮灾害作为我国最主要的海洋灾害，它已成为影响沿海地区正常经济社会生活的重要因素。沿海地区风暴潮灾害的高风险性使得沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险逐渐成为学者们的关注对象。 20世纪80年代，学者们关于自然灾害的研究重点逐渐转移到脆弱性，认为脆弱性也是导致灾情发生及灾情差异的关键因素之一。而且不同于致灾因子相关研究主要关注致灾因子强度和频率，难以为人类所掌控。脆弱性分析是联系灾害与风险研究的重要桥梁,脆弱性与社会经济系统密切相关，人类可以通过调整社会经济活动减少脆弱性，，进而降低灾害损失，促进沿海地区社会经济的可持续发展。本文将粗糙集理论引入风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价，并将其与组合赋权法相结合构建了RST-CWM组合评价模型，并应用该模型对沿海省市风暴潮灾害脆弱性进行了组合评价。文章首先，界定脆弱性相关的概念，厘清脆弱性相关概念之间的关系；识别沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性因子。其次，分别分析粗糙集理论(RST)及组合赋权方法(CWM)在风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中的适用性，并结合两种方法的优势构建地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性RST-CWM组合评价模型。然后，在灾害脆弱性相关理论分析基础上，结合沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性因子识别结果，考虑RST-CWM组合评价模型特点，建立沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价指标体系；最后，应用地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性RST-CWM组合评价模型对我国沿海11省市的风暴潮灾害脆弱性进行评价分析。评价结果显示：RST-CWM组合评价模型能够有效结合两种方法优势，提高评价分析的可信性和准确性；我国沿海省市风暴潮灾害脆弱性由大到小排序依次为：山东天津福建广东广西辽宁江苏浙江海南河北上海。论文在以下方面进行了创新性探讨：构建地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性RST-CWM组合模型，一方面将粗糙集理论引入风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价，消除冗杂指标，提高风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价的有效性；另一方面，采用组合赋权方法确定指标权重，一定程度地改善了单一方法进行评价的片面性，可以有效提高评价结论的准确性和可信度。
[Abstract]:The coastal area is the most developed area of our country's economy and society, the leader of the economic and social development of our country, and has an important strategic position in the social and economic development of our country. However, with the continuous change of the global climate, the more frequent marine disasters have seriously affected the sustainable development of the economy and society of the coastal areas of our country. As the most important marine disaster in China, it has become an important factor affecting the normal economic and social life of coastal areas. The high risk of storm tide in coastal areas makes the risk of storm tide in coastal areas gradually become the focus of attention of scholars.
In 1980s, the focus of research on natural disasters gradually shifted to vulnerability, and it was considered that vulnerability was also one of the key factors that resulted in the occurrence of disaster and the difference of the disaster. The important bridge of risk research is that the vulnerability is closely related to the social and economic system. The human beings can reduce the vulnerability by adjusting the social and economic activities, and then reduce the loss of disaster and promote the sustainable development of the social and economic in the coastal areas.
In this paper, the rough set theory is introduced into the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, and a combination evaluation model of RST-CWM is constructed by combining it with combination empowerment method. The model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of storm tide disaster in coastal provinces and cities.
Firstly, the article defines the concept of vulnerability related, clarifies the relationship between the related concepts of vulnerability, and identifies the vulnerability factors of storm surge disaster in coastal areas. Secondly, it analyzes the applicability of rough set theory (RST) and combination weighting method (CWM) in the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, and constructs regional wind with the advantages of the two methods. RST-CWM combined evaluation model of storm flood vulnerability, then, on the basis of the related theory analysis of disaster vulnerability, combined with the identification results of the vulnerability factor of storm tide disaster in coastal areas, and considering the characteristics of the RST-CWM combination evaluation model, the vulnerability evaluation index system of storm tide disaster in coastal areas is established. Finally, the storm surge disaster is used in the area. The weak RST-CWM combination evaluation model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of storm surge disaster in 11 coastal provinces and cities in China. The evaluation results show that the RST-CWM combined evaluation model can effectively combine the advantages of the two methods and improve the credibility and accuracy of the evaluation and analysis. The vulnerability of storm tide disasters in coastal provinces and cities in China is in order from large to small order. Shandong, Tianjin, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hainan, Hebei and Hebei.
In the following aspects, the paper makes an innovative discussion: constructing the RST-CWM combination model of regional storm surge vulnerability. On the one hand, it introduces rough set theory into the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster, eliminates the miscellaneous index, and improves the effectiveness of the vulnerability assessment of storm tide disaster; the other side uses combination weighting method to determine the index weight. To a certain extent, the one-sided evaluation of the single method can be improved, and the accuracy and credibility of the conclusion can be effectively improved.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P731.23

【参考文献】