基于层次分析的库区溢油风险模糊综合评估

发布时间：2018-05-29 01:38

本文选题：溢油风险评估 + 模糊综合评估　；参考：《中国航海》2017年03期

【摘要】：在概述现有溢油风险评估方法的基础上,提出基于层次分析的模糊综合评估模型的潜在优势,详细介绍其构建方法,并以舟山岙山石油储运库区为例进行应用示范。建立适合的溢油风险评估指标体系,确立评估模型的因素集和评估集及各指标的隶属度和权重,利用层次分析法对所建指标体系进行逐级评估,得到模型综合评估结果。结果表明:在设定作业情景下,岙山库区综合溢油风险介于较小风险与中度风险之间。通过对各级指标风险值进行深入分析,进一步识别其中的重点潜在溢油风险隐患,并提出有针对性的溢油风险防范建议。模型的建立和应用能为岙山石油储运库区及其他存在多风险源的海域的溢油风险评估与防范提供科学指导和技术支持。
[Abstract]:On the basis of summarizing the existing methods of oil spill risk assessment, this paper puts forward the potential advantages of fuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on AHP, introduces its construction method in detail, and takes the reservoir area of Aoshan oil storage and transportation in Zhoushan as an example to demonstrate its application. A suitable index system of oil spill risk assessment was established, and the factor set, evaluation set, membership degree and weight of each index were established, and the comprehensive evaluation results of the model were obtained by using AHP to evaluate the index system step by step. The results show that the comprehensive oil spill risk in the Aoshan reservoir area is between the small risk and the moderate risk. Through the in-depth analysis of the risk values of the indexes at all levels, the key potential oil spill risks are further identified, and suggestions are put forward to prevent the oil spill risks. The establishment and application of the model can provide scientific guidance and technical support for oil spill risk assessment and prevention in Aoshan oil storage and transportation reservoir area and other sea areas with multiple risk sources.
【作者单位】：浙江海洋大学海洋科学与技术学院;浙江海洋大学创新应用研究院;浙江省海洋科学院;
【基金】：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(20130512)
【分类号】：X55;X82

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