海岸侵蚀风险评价模型构建及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 11:49

本文选题：福建海岸 + 海岸侵蚀管理　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：本文以海洋地球科学理论和灾害经济学理论为指导，结合现代综合评价方法，应用层次分析法、模糊集理论和地理信息技术等手段，在野外调查、文献调研和专家咨询的基础上，将定性分析和定量运算相结合，理论研究和实际应用相结合，对构建海岸侵蚀风险评价模型进行研究，主要取得了以下几点认识：（1）考虑地质环境因素和社会经济因素，通过专家咨询选取13个评价指标合成海岸侵蚀风险，建立了中国海岸侵蚀风险评价指标体系。这些指标分别是易蚀性、岸线演化、平均波高、相对海平面变化、城镇化水平、风暴增水、潮差、人口密度、地区生产总值、海域等别、地方财政收入、海岸防护能力和土地使用与土地覆被变化等。（2）构建了基于层次分析法和模糊集理论的海岸侵蚀风险评价模型。确定了各个评价指标的权重，对于隐形侵蚀危险性，易损性权重最大为0.5065，其次是岸线演化水平、平均波高、相对海平面变化，城镇化水平贡献最小；对于显现侵蚀危险性，易损性亦是贡献最大，权重为0.6845，风暴增水和潮差影响相对较小；对于暴露性，人口密度贡献最大，，权重为0.6033，超过地区生产总值和海域等别权重总和；海岸防护能力对综合减灾能力最直接的影响，权重为0.5844，地方财政收入和土地使用/覆被变化所占比列相当。通过反复试验和对比，确定了模糊集理论的正态型隶属函数，并作出隶属函数图像，解释了隶属度的意义。（3）根据海岸侵蚀风险等级评价结果，参照同类合并和优势突出的原则，对福建省23个评价单元进行海岸侵蚀风险区划并编绘福建省海岸侵蚀风险区划图。福建省沿岸划分成5级风险区，即很低风险区、低风险区、中等风险区、高风险区和很高风险区；从北到南总共区划出14个风险区段，其中很低风险区1段、低风险区5段、中等风险区3段、高风险区3段、很高风险区2段。结果表明，本文构建的海岸侵蚀风险评价模型能适用于福建海岸侵蚀风险评价，海岸侵蚀风险区划结果能清楚地表达各个评价单元的风险差异。由分析讨论可知，海岸侵蚀风险等级和区划结果符合福建海岸侵蚀现状并具有一定的预测和指导意义。（4）根据我国海岸侵蚀类型，结合实地考察和理论论证采取不同的海岸侵蚀防护措施。砂砾质海岸侵蚀应以护滩工程为主，辅以护岸工程；软岩海岸侵蚀以护岸工程防护为主；淤泥质海岸侵蚀应以护岸工程为主，辅以护滩工程；亚热带热带的生物海岸侵蚀则以适应性工程适宜；海岸工程侵蚀是一类特殊的海岸侵蚀类型，对于这类海岸侵蚀应以源头治理为主，即要禁止不合理的海岸工程建设，同时对已存在工程造成的侵蚀加强防治。
[Abstract]:Guided by the theory of marine earth science and the theory of disaster economics, combined with modern comprehensive evaluation method, this paper applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy set theory and geographic information technology to investigate in the field. On the basis of literature investigation and expert consultation, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation, theoretical research and practical application to study the construction of coastal erosion risk assessment model. 1) considering geological environmental factors and social economic factors, 13 evaluation indexes were selected through expert consultation to synthesize coastal erosion risk, and the evaluation index system of coastal erosion risk in China was established. These indicators are erodibility, shoreline evolution, average wave height, relative sea level change, urbanization level, windsurges, tidal range, population density, regional GDP, sea area, etc., local revenue, etc. Coastal protection capacity and land use and land cover change, etc. (2) A model of coastal erosion risk assessment based on AHP and fuzzy set theory is established. The weight of each evaluation index is determined. For invisible erosion risk, vulnerability weight is the largest 0.5065, followed by shoreline evolution level, average wave height, relative sea level change, urbanization level contribution is the least. Vulnerability is also the biggest contribution, the weight is 0.6845, the impact of windburst and tidal range is relatively small, for exposure, the population density contribution is the largest, the weight is 0.6033, which exceeds the total weight of regional GDP and sea area. The most direct effect of coastal protection capacity on comprehensive disaster reduction capacity is 0.5844, and the ratio of local fiscal revenue and land use / cover change is equal. Through repeated experiments and comparisons, the normal membership function of fuzzy set theory is determined, and the image of membership function is made, and the significance of membership degree is explained. 3) according to the evaluation results of coastal erosion risk grade and referring to the principle of similar combination and superiority, the coastal erosion risk regionalization of 23 evaluation units in Fujian Province is carried out and the coastal erosion risk zoning map of Fujian Province is drawn up. The coast of Fujian Province is divided into Grade 5 risk areas, that is, very low risk areas, medium risk areas, high risk areas and very high risk areas. A total of 14 risk zones are zoned from the north to the south, of which 1 is the very low risk area and 5 is the low risk area. Middle risk area 3, high risk area 3, very high risk area 2. The results show that the coastal erosion risk assessment model constructed in this paper can be used to evaluate the coastal erosion risk in Fujian Province, and the results of coastal erosion risk zoning can clearly express the risk differences of each evaluation unit. From the analysis and discussion, it can be seen that the grade of coastal erosion risk and the result of regionalization accord with the present situation of coastal erosion in Fujian Province and have certain prediction and guiding significance. 4) according to the types of coastal erosion in China, combined with field investigation and theoretical demonstration, different coastal erosion protection measures are adopted. Sand and gravel coastal erosion should be dominated by beach protection works, supplemented by bank protection works, coastal erosion of soft rock should be mainly protected by bank protection works, and silt coast erosion should be mainly bank revetment works, supplemented by beach protection works. Coastal engineering erosion is a special type of coastal erosion. For this kind of coastal erosion, it should be controlled mainly by source, that is to say, it is necessary to prohibit unreasonable coastal engineering construction. At the same time, the erosion caused by existing projects should be prevented.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P737.1

【参考文献】