沿海重大工程场址的地震海啸危险性分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 21:13

本文选题：地震海啸 + 历史地震海啸　；参考：《中国地震局工程力学研究所》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国沿海地区经济发达、人口众多，遍布着很多的重大工程，如海上钻井平台、跨海大桥和核电机组等。2011年3月11日日本特大地震引发的海啸引发举世瞩目的核泄漏事故。由此引起了我国学者对沿海重大工程场址地震海啸危险性分析的高度重视，越来越多的人意识到我国沿海构建完善的海啸防灾减灾机制迫在眉睫。（1）本文整理了可能影响我国沿海地区的历史地震海啸目录，历史上渤海、黄海、东海以及南海近海沿岸地区均有地震海啸的记录，近二千年史料中记载的沿海地区地震海啸灾害达30多条。通过对这些历史地震海啸灾害记录的研究，可以获取我国沿海海域大陆架的地震地质特征信息、评估我国沿海海域地震活动性、划定潜在地震海啸源区，为我国沿海重大工程场址地震海啸危险性分析提供可靠参考。（2）对于没有足够历史地震海啸和史前地震海啸记录的地区，采用基于数值模拟的分析方法来评价该地区的海啸危险性是一种有效方法。本文利用COMCOT模型模拟了近些年发生的多次地震海啸，分析海啸成灾的原因，将模拟结果与美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）国家地球物理数据中心（NGDC）的观测数据进行对比分析，认为计算结果与观测数据符合度较高，，模型可靠性较好，可以为我国沿海重大工程场址地震海啸危险性分析提供可靠计算方法。（3）本文借鉴地震危险性分析方法（PSHA），对地震海啸危险性概率分析方法（PTHA）进行了较全面的分析与研究。我国史料中已确定的历史地震海啸较少，且有关古海啸沉积的研究处于初级阶段，因此历史地震海啸与古地震海啸不能为地震海啸危险性概率分析提供可靠的数据。地震海啸数值模拟方法成为评价我国沿海重大工程场址地震海啸危险性的有效方法。本文以三门场点和大鹏场点为例，进行基于数值模拟的地震海啸危险性概率分析。三门场点的地震海啸危险性主要来源于琉球海沟，而大鹏场点的地震海啸危险性主要来源马尼拉海沟、担杆列岛海外段、珠－坳中部断裂。通过计算最后指出大鹏场点的海啸危险性较高，应加大海啸预警的投入、提高建筑物海啸设防标准，构建完善的海啸防灾减灾体系。本文较全面地对地震海啸危险性概率分析进行了研究，此思路可为实现我国沿海地震海啸危险性分析、编制我国沿海地震海啸危险区划图提供技术支持，为沿海城市的规划、海洋资源的合理开发、重大工程设施的布局提供可靠参考。
[Abstract]:The coastal areas of our country have developed economy, large population and many important projects, such as offshore drilling platforms, bridge across the sea and nuclear power units. The tsunami caused by the Japanese earthquake on March 11, 2011 has caused a nuclear leakage accident that attracts worldwide attention. As a result, scholars in China attach great importance to seismic and tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites. More and more people are aware of the urgency of building a sound tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism along the coast of China. 1) this paper collates the catalogue of historical earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the coastal areas of China. Historically, the Bohai Sea, Huang Hai, Earthquakes and tsunamis are recorded in coastal areas of the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and more than 30 earthquakes and tsunamis have been recorded in the coastal areas in the last two thousand years. Through the study of these historical earthquake and tsunami disaster records, we can obtain the seismic geological characteristics of the continental shelf of the coastal waters of China, evaluate the seismicity of the coastal waters of our country, and delineate the source areas of potential earthquakes and tsunamis. It provides a reliable reference for earthquake and tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites in China. (2) for areas where there are not enough records of historical earthquakes and tsunamis and prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis, It is an effective method to evaluate the tsunami risk in this area by using numerical simulation method. In this paper, we use the COMCOT model to simulate many earthquakes and tsunamis in recent years, and analyze the causes of the tsunami disaster. The simulation results are compared with those observed by the National Geophysical data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. It is considered that the coincidence between the calculated results and the observed data is high, and the reliability of the model is good. It can provide a reliable calculation method for seismic tsunami risk analysis at major coastal engineering sites in China. (3) this paper uses the seismic hazard analysis method PSHAA for reference, and makes a complete study on the seismic tsunami risk probability analysis method (PTHAA). Analysis and study of surface. There are few historical earthquakes and tsunamis in the historical data of our country, and the research on ancient tsunami deposition is still in the primary stage. Therefore, historical earthquake tsunami and ancient earthquake tsunami can not provide reliable data for seismic tsunami risk probability analysis. The numerical simulation method of earthquake and tsunami is an effective method to evaluate the seismic and tsunami risk of major engineering sites along the coast of China. In this paper, the probabilistic analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk based on numerical simulation is carried out by taking Sanmen site and Dapeng site as examples. The seismic and tsunami hazard of Sanmen site is mainly from the Ryukyu trench, while that of Dapeng site is mainly from the Manila trench, the overseas section of the Tam Guang Islands, and the central Zhuzhou-Depression fault. Finally, it is pointed out that the tsunami risk of Dapeng site is high, the investment of tsunami warning should be increased, the building tsunami protection standard should be raised, and a perfect tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation system should be constructed. In this paper, the probabilistic analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk is studied in a comprehensive way. This idea can provide technical support for the analysis of earthquake and tsunami risk along the coast of our country, and provide technical support for drawing up a map of the risk zone of earthquake and tsunami along the coast of China, as well as for the planning of coastal cities. The rational development of marine resources and the layout of major engineering facilities provide reliable reference.
【学位授予单位】：中国地震局工程力学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P731.25

【共引文献】