CMIP5气候模式下淡水通量变化

发布时间：2018-07-29 14:46

【摘要】：基于全球降水气候态计划(GPCP)的降水资料和美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(WHOI)的客观分析海气通量(OAFlux)的蒸发数据,对CMIP5的13个耦合模式的淡水通量历史模拟结果进行评估。结果表明:模式能够模拟出淡水通量的气候态空间分布,但普遍存在双热带辐合带(ITCZ)现象,热带海域是模式模拟不确定性最大的区域。模式能较好模拟出纬向平均的淡水通量的分布特征,但量值较实测偏小,且由于模式对1月10°S附近淡水通量的模拟过低,导致年平均的赤道和10°S之间的淡水通量模拟存在明显的偏差。季节尺度上,模式对北半球淡水通量的变化特征有很好的模拟能力,但对南半球的模拟能力不足。年际尺度上,模式普遍能够刻画ENSO引起的淡水通量在太平洋中部同西太平洋以及印尼贯通流反相变化的空间分布特征,但是时间特征模拟很差。从各个方面评估模式的历史模拟结果,多模式集合的结果都要优于单个模式的结果。全球变暖背景下,未来淡水通量变化最显著的区域位于热带和亚热带区域。原本蒸发(降水)占主导的海域,蒸发(降水)更强。不同气候情景下,淡水通量变化的空间形态没有显著变化,但RCP8.5气候情景下模拟的淡水通量变化幅度及模式间变化的一致性均强于RCP4.5的结果。
[Abstract]:Based on the precipitation data of the Global precipitation Climate Program (GPCP) and the objective analysis of the evaporation data of the air-sea flux (OAFlux) by (WHOI) of the Woods Hole Ocean Research Institute, the historical simulation results of the freshwater flux of 13 coupling models of CMIP5 are evaluated. The results show that the model can simulate the spatial distribution of fresh water fluxes, but the (ITCZ) phenomenon in the double tropical convergence zone is common, and the tropical sea area is the region with the greatest uncertainty in the model simulation. The model can well simulate the distribution characteristics of zonal mean fresh water flux, but the magnitude is smaller than the measured value, and the model is too low to simulate the freshwater flux near 10 掳S in January. This resulted in a significant deviation in the simulation of freshwater flux between the annual average equator and 10 掳S. On a seasonal scale, the model has a good ability to simulate the characteristics of freshwater fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere, but not enough in the Southern Hemisphere. On an interannual scale, the model can generally describe the spatial distribution characteristics of the reverse change of ENSO induced freshwater flux in the central Pacific and the western Pacific and Indonesia, but the time characteristic simulation is very poor. The result of multi-pattern set is better than that of single model. In the context of global warming, the regions with the most significant changes in freshwater fluxes in the future are in the tropical and subtropical regions. Originally evaporation (precipitation) dominated the sea area, evaporation (precipitation) is stronger. Under different climate scenarios, there was no significant change in the spatial morphology of freshwater flux changes, but the range and consistency of the simulated freshwater fluxes in RCP8.5 climate scenarios were stronger than those of RCP4.5.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院;国家海洋环境预报中心;
【基金】：国家海洋局海洋公益性专项(201505013) 国家自然科学基金(41376008,41106024,41376016)
【分类号】：P732.6

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