热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

发布时间：2018-08-01 18:21

【摘要】：热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1 000a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值I型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1 000a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1 000a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1 000a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。
[Abstract]:The study of storm surge risk assessment has been plagued by the shortage of historical samples of tropical cyclones. Based on the data of 62a (1949-2010) historical observation of tropical cyclone events in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the 1 000a random event set of simulated tropical cyclones constructed by stochastic simulation method, Taking Lianjiang County, Fujian Province as an example, the influence of the length of data on the results of storm surge hazard assessment was analyzed. In this paper, the ADCIRC model is used to simulate the storm surge increasing water under the forcing of two data sets, and the storm surge increasing water in the typical recurrence period is obtained by using the extreme I distribution method. Through the analysis of the calculated results, it is found that the calculated results of storm surge and water increase in a typical recurrence period are closely related to the length of the data used, and the longer the data is, the more stable the results are. For the increasing water value of 1 000 a storm surge, the data of 500 years length have been stabilized and are close to the result calculated with 1 000 a data. In the assessment of storm surge risk, it is more meaningful to calculate the results of the simulation data set of tropical cyclones than that of the historical data set of tropical cyclones on a scale of several decades (1 000 a).
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院;中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;
【基金】：海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305020-4)
【分类号】：P731.23;P732

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