长江口洪季水动力对海平面上升的响应特征

发布时间：2018-08-08 20:36

【摘要】：考虑到海平面上升对长江口水动力构成的严重威胁,该文基于MIKE21软件建立了长江口二维水动力数学模型,采用实测潮位、流速以及流向资料对模型进行了验证。对相关文献和IPCC报告进行总结归纳,得到2100年海平面保守上升值约为0.5 m。运用验证好的数学模型对海平面上升0.5 m后长江口洪季水动力进行了数值模拟。计算结果表明:海平面上升后,涨潮时间增长,落潮时间缩短;海平面上升0.5 m后,长江口南北支、南北港以及南北槽高潮位增加了0.43 m 0.46 m,高潮位增幅沿程向上减小,北支上段涨潮动力受阻较明显(潮位增幅较大);海平面上升0.5 m后,北支流速增幅比南支大,北支上段落潮流量增幅达82.8%,对北支水道的发展有利。总体而言,海平面上升对目前长江口沿岸的标准构成了一定威胁,但对已经衰退的北支水道有利。
[Abstract]:Considering the serious threat posed by sea level rise to the hydrodynamics of the Changjiang Estuary, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic mathematical model of the Changjiang Estuary is established based on MIKE21 software. The model is verified by the measured tidal level, velocity and flow direction data. Based on the summary of relevant literature and IPCC report, it is concluded that sea level rise is about 0.5 m conservatively in 2100. The hydrodynamics of the Yangtze Estuary flood season after sea level rise of 0.5 m are numerically simulated by using the verified mathematical model. The calculated results show that after sea level rise, the time of rising tide increases and the time of falling tide shortens, and after the rise of 0.5 m sea level, the high tide level increases by 0.43 m / 0.46 m in the north and south branches of the Yangtze River Estuary, the north and south ports and the north and south trenches, and the increase of high tide level decreases upward along the course. After sea level rise of 0.5 m, the increase of velocity in the north branch is larger than that in the south branch, and the increase of tidal current in the upper section of the northern branch is 82.8, which is beneficial to the development of the northern branch waterway. Overall, sea level rise poses a threat to the current standards along the Yangtze Estuary, but is beneficial to the declining northern branch waterways.
【作者单位】：浙江海洋大学海运与港航建筑工程学院;同济大学土木工程学院;上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;浙江工业大学建筑工程学院;海军91991部队;
【基金】：国家“九七三”重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB95 7704) 浙江海洋大学科研启动经费(1987)~~
【分类号】：P731.2

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