海州湾渔业资源对海洋开发活动的生态承载力分析

发布时间：2018-08-26 20:12

【摘要】：我国作为海洋大国,海洋经济在社会经济发展中占据了举足轻重的地位,海洋渔业资源成为维系未来经济社会健康的战略资源。伴随着海洋经济的飞速发展,海洋开发活动对渔业资源产生了巨大压力和影响,开发超载现象较为普遍,资源可持续再生能力加速丧失。现存海洋渔业资源究竟能承受海洋开发活动多大的压力已经成为海洋经济可持续发展的重要课题,海域生态承载力作为量化这种承受限度的量对经济社会可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。鉴于此背景,以可持续发展理论、承载力递阶理论、系统论为基础,梳理国内外承载力研究进展,总结海州湾自然环境、社会经济和渔业生态概况,构建渔业资源对海洋开发活动的生态承载力分析理论框架。主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)海州湾海域渔业生态足迹模拟。利用渔业生态足迹的算法,对连云港近海2006-2015年的生态足迹进行计算,研究了海州湾渔业生态现状。在此基础上,依据系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)原理,嵌入营养动态模式,构建了海州湾海域渔业生态足迹SD模型。利用2006-2015年的历史渔业数据验证该模型是可行的,并运用模型预测了不同捕捞强度下海州湾渔业生态系统的发展模式。2006-2015年海州湾近海渔业生态足迹由1.8251×106hm2增长到1.9301×106hm2,平均值为1.8491×106hm2,海州湾海域已处于不可持续的发展状态中;根据模型仿真分析,如果进一步加强捕捞强度,渔业生态足迹会急剧下降,最终趋于0值,随着加强程度的增大,生态足迹下降越快,趋于0值的时间也越短;通过海洋渔获量阈值的计算,需要在目前捕捞强度下降低约50%,渔业生态足迹才能回升,生态赤字也能平稳降低,从而防止渔业生态系统崩溃。该结果可用于海州湾海域生态效应的预警,预防渔业生态系统崩溃的情景出现。(2)围填海对海州湾渔业生态承载力的影响为了量化围填海活动对海州湾生物资源承载力的累积性影响程度,统计了近年海州湾的围填海数据,计算了因围填海影响的生态承载力。通过生态足迹法对围填海活动的累积性生态影响进行宏观评价,以期为海州湾围填海项目在生态环境保护领域的健康进行提供借鉴。结果表明,海州湾的生态承载力逐渐降低,而生态足迹在逐渐变大,已经高于平均生态承载力0.2319×106hm2,约为承载力的8倍,生态赤字由2006年的-1.5928 hm2增长到2015年的-1.6990 hm2。围填海活动进一步扩大了海州湾的生态赤字,加重了海州湾生物资源的不可持续利用程度。(3)海州湾渔业生态承载力综合评价。构建海州湾渔业生态承载力评价指标体系,包括年海洋捕捞总量、围填后海湾面积、常驻人口密度、人均GDP、恩格尔系数、渔业总产值、渔业劳动力共计7个评价指标,应用模糊综合评判模型,对海州湾2006-2014年间渔业生态承载力进行了综合评价。结果表明,除个别年份海州湾生态承载力综合评分值对V2的隶属度总体上大于V3与V1的隶属度,说明海州湾海洋开发活动已处于适载的临界范围,开发潜力相对较小,综合评分均低于0.5,且评价结果对V1的隶属度大于V3的隶属度,表明海州湾生态承载力不容乐观。海州湾生态承载力综合评分值虽然有所上升,但对V1的隶属度已经超过V2的隶属度,表明海州湾近年的承载力状况堪忧,渔业资源的供需矛盾突出,在生物资源利用和经济发展的协调方面需引起足够重视。综上所述,海州湾海洋开发活动对渔业资源生态承载力造成了影响,并随着海洋开发活动的投入,影响程度持续加强。本生态承载力评价模型有助于弥补相关领域研究的不足,为缓解海州湾开发与渔业资源利用的矛盾,实现生态、资源保护与社会经济可持续发展提供有益参考
[Abstract]:As a large marine country, China's marine economy plays an important role in the social and economic development. Marine fishery resources become a strategic resource to maintain the future economic and social health. How much pressure the existing marine fishery resources can withstand has become an important issue for the sustainable development of marine economy. As a quantitative measure of the ecological carrying capacity of the sea area, it has important theoretical value and practical significance for the sustainable development of the economy and society. Based on sustainable development theory, bearing capacity hierarchy theory and system theory, this paper reviews the research progress of carrying capacity at home and abroad, summarizes the general situation of natural environment, social economy and Fishery Ecology in Haizhou Bay, and constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the ecological carrying capacity of fishery resources for marine development activities. Simulation of fishery ecological footprint in the Bay area. The ecological footprint of Lianyungang coastal waters from 2006 to 2015 was calculated by using the fishery ecological footprint algorithm, and the fishery ecological status of Haizhou Bay was studied. The fishery ecological footprint in Haizhou Bay increased from 1.8251 106 hm2 to 1.9301 106 hm2 in 2006-2015, with an average of 1.8491 6550 According to the model simulation analysis, if the fishing intensity is further strengthened, the fishery ecological footprint will drop sharply, and eventually reach zero value. With the increase of the degree of enhancement, the ecological footprint will decline faster and the time to reach zero value will be shorter. By calculating the catch threshold, the fishing intensity should be reduced by about 50% at present. The results can be used to warn the ecological effects of the Haizhou Bay and prevent the collapse of the fishery ecosystem. (2) The impact of reclamation on the fishery ecological carrying capacity of the Haizhou Bay to quantify the reclamation activities on the Haizhou Bay. The cumulative effect of reclamation on material resources carrying capacity is analyzed. The data of reclamation in Haizhou Bay in recent years are counted and the ecological carrying capacity affected by reclamation is calculated. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay is gradually decreasing, while the ecological footprint is gradually increasing, which is already higher than the average ecological carrying capacity of 0.2319 6550 (3) Comprehensive evaluation of fishery ecological carrying capacity in Haizhou Bay. The evaluation index system of fishery ecological carrying capacity in Haizhou Bay was constructed, including annual total marine fishing, reclamation Bay area, resident population density, per capita GDP, Engel coefficient, fishery output value and fishery labor force. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the fishery ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that the membership degree of the comprehensive evaluation value of the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay to V2 was higher than that of V3 and V1 except for individual years, indicating that the marine development activities of Haizhou Bay were in the critical range of suitable load and the development potential was relatively high. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay is not optimistic. Although the comprehensive rating value of ecological carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay has increased, the membership degree of V1 has exceeded that of V2, indicating that the carrying capacity of Haizhou Bay in recent years is worrying, and the supply and demand of fishery resources is worrying. In summary, the marine development activities in Haizhou Bay have an impact on the ecological carrying capacity of fishery resources, and with the input of marine development activities, the impact continues to strengthen. The evaluation model of ecological carrying capacity is helpful to make up for the relevant research fields. The deficiencies provide useful reference for alleviating the contradiction between the exploitation of Haizhou Bay and the utilization of fishery resources, realizing the ecological, resource protection and the sustainable development of social economy.
【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.4;P74

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