风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述

发布时间：2018-09-09 16:24

【摘要】：脆弱性是自然灾害风险研究的热点,风暴潮灾害脆弱性与风暴潮自然过程强度以及沿海社会经济、人口、自然环境等因素相关。本文从风暴潮灾害脆弱性定义出发,对国内外风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性和物理脆弱性进行了回顾,重点对人口、海堤、房屋等风暴潮灾害典型承灾体物理脆弱性研究进展进行了论述,分析了风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中存在的不确定性,探讨了风暴潮灾害脆弱性在灾害损失评估、保险及再保险、防灾减灾决策支持等领域的应用,对未来风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究提出了以下展望:(1)开发符合中国沿海区域风暴潮灾害特征和承灾体分布的定量化、精细化脆弱性曲线,拓展风暴潮脆弱性评价结果在保险理赔、灾害损失评估等领域应用;(2)气候变化背景下中国沿海面临风暴潮巨灾风险,迫切需要建立科学的基于灾害实地踏勘以及物模实验、数值模拟相结合的风暴潮灾害典型承灾体脆弱性评估方法模型。
[Abstract]:Vulnerability is a hotspot of natural disaster risk research. The vulnerability of storm surge disaster is related to the intensity of natural process of storm surge and the factors of coastal social economy, population and natural environment. The research progress of physical vulnerability of storm surge hazards such as seawalls and houses is discussed. The uncertainties in vulnerability assessment of storm surge hazards are analyzed. The application of Storm Surge Hazard Vulnerability in disaster loss assessment, insurance and reinsurance, decision support for disaster prevention and mitigation is discussed. The future storm surge hazards are brittle. Weakness studies put forward the following prospects: (1) to develop the quantitative analysis of storm surge disaster characteristics and distribution of disaster-bearing bodies, refine the vulnerability curve, and expand the application of storm surge vulnerability assessment results in insurance claims, disaster loss assessment and other fields; (2) China's coastal areas are facing the risk of storm surge catastrophe under the background of climate change. It is necessary to establish a scientific vulnerability assessment model of typical storm surge hazards based on disaster field investigation, physical model experiment and numerical simulation.
【作者单位】：国家海洋局海洋减灾中心;北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;浙江大学海洋学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41501560) 海洋公益性行业科研专项项目(201505018,201305020)~~
【分类号】：P731.23

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