物种分布模型在海洋潜在生境预测的应用研究进展

发布时间：2018-10-04 19:56

【摘要】：海洋生物的栖息分布与环境要素的关联性一直是海洋生态学研究的热点之一.近年来,物种分布模型被广泛应用于预测海洋物种分布、潜在适宜性生境评价等研究,为保护海洋生物多样性、防治外来物种入侵及制定渔业管理措施等提供了一条有效途径.物种分布模型主要包括生境适宜性指数模型、机理模型和统计模型.本文对物种分布模型的理论基础进行了归纳和总结,回顾了物种分布模型在预测海洋物种潜在地理分布研究中的开发与应用,重点介绍了不同类型统计模型在海洋物种潜在分布预测中的研究实例.比较各种选取变量和模型验证方法,认为赤池信息准则对于选取模型变量具有优势,Kappa系数和受试者操作特征曲线下面积在验证模型精度中应用最广泛.阐述了物种分布模型存在的问题及未来发展趋势,随着海洋生物生理机制研究的进一步深入,机理模型将是今后物种分布模型发展的重点.
[Abstract]:The relationship between the habitat distribution of marine organisms and environmental factors has been one of the hot spots in marine ecology. In recent years, species distribution models have been widely used to predict marine species distribution and potential suitability habitat evaluation, which provides an effective way to protect marine biodiversity, prevent invasive alien species and formulate fishery management measures. Species distribution models mainly include habitat suitability index model, mechanism model and statistical model. In this paper, the theoretical basis of the species distribution model is summarized, and the development and application of the species distribution model in predicting the potential geographical distribution of marine species are reviewed. The research examples of different statistical models in predicting the potential distribution of marine species are introduced. By comparing various selection variables and model verification methods, it is considered that the red pool information criterion has the advantage of Kappa coefficient and the area under the operating characteristic curve of the subjects in the validation of the model accuracy. The existing problems and future development trend of species distribution model are expounded. With the further study of marine biological physiological mechanism, the mechanism model will be the key point of species distribution model development in the future.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学海水养殖教育部重点实验室;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究计划项目(2015CB453302) 国家自然科学基金项目(41676153)资助~~
【分类号】：Q178.53

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