中国CMIP5模式对未来北极海冰的模拟偏差

发布时间：2018-10-31 18:12

【摘要】：本文对中国参加CMIP5的6个气候模式对未来北极海冰的模拟情况进行了评估。通过与1979—2005年海冰的观测值以及2050年代的多模式集合平均值对比发现,中国的气候模式对海冰范围的模拟结果与CMIP5模式的平均水平存在一定差距,具体表现为:BNU-ESM和FGOALS-s2对当前海冰范围估计很好,但对温度敏感性略偏高;FIO-ESM对当前海冰范围估计很好,但由于海冰对温度的敏感性偏低,导致其模拟的未来海冰在各种RCP情景中都融化缓慢;FGOALSg2(BCC-CSM1-1和BCC-CSM1-1-m)对当前海冰范围的模拟存在显著偏多(显著偏少)的问题,这导致其对未来海冰融化的估计也持续偏多(偏少)。中国模式对北极海冰的模拟偏差导致它们对极区地表大气温度和湿度的模拟出现偏差,并且这些极区气象要素的偏差会进一步通过动力过程传导到对秋、冬季西风带、极涡的模拟中去。研究表明:从对海冰本身的模拟以及海冰偏差带来的气候影响这两个角度看,BNU-ESM在中国模式中水平较高,但总体上中国6个气候模式在海冰分量的模拟上仍与世界平均水平存在差距,这需要中国各模式中心的持续改进。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the simulation of the future Arctic sea ice by six climate models of China participating in CMIP5 is evaluated. By comparing with the sea ice observations from 1979 to 2005 and the average values of multi-model sets in 2050's, it is found that the simulated results of the climate model in China for the sea ice range are far from the average level of the CMIP5 model. The main results are as follows: BNU-ESM and FGOALS-s2 estimate the current sea ice range very well, but the sensitivity to temperature is slightly higher; FIO-ESM estimates the current sea ice range very well, but due to the low sensitivity of sea ice to temperature, the future sea ice that it simulates melts slowly in all kinds of RCP scenarios. The problem of FGOALSg2 (BCC-CSM1-1 and BCC-CSM1-1-m) in simulating the current sea ice range is significantly more (significantly less), which leads to its estimation of sea ice melting in the future is still too much (too little). The simulated deviation of the Chinese model to Arctic sea ice causes them to deviate from the surface temperature and humidity of the polar region, and the deviation of these polar meteorological elements will be further transmitted through the dynamic process to the westerly zone in autumn and winter. In the simulation of the polar vortex. The results show that, from the point of view of the simulation of sea ice itself and the climatic impact of sea ice deviation, the BNU-ESM level is relatively high in the Chinese model. However, there is still a gap between the six climate models in China and the world average in the simulation of sea ice component, which needs the continuous improvement of each model center in China.
【作者单位】：北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系气候与海-气实验室;
【基金】：自然科学基金(41130962、41130105) 北京市青年英才计划(YETP0005) 中科院战略先导专项(XDA05080801)
【分类号】：P731.15

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