厄尔尼诺事件对太湖流域降水的影响

发布时间：2018-11-05 16:02

【摘要】：为了揭示1951~2016年厄尔尼诺事件影响下太湖流域夏季(6~8月)降水特征,分析了厄尔尼诺事件开始年与结束年的降水状况。结果表明:太湖流域降雨与厄尔尼诺事件存在一定的关系:(1)弱强度厄尔尼诺事件起始年的6月与6~8月、结束年的6月与7月降水均以正常、大旱与极旱为主;中等强度厄尔尼诺事件起始年的6月与6~8月以正常与大涝为主,结束年同时段以正常、偏旱与大旱为主;(超)强厄尔尼诺事件起始年6月以正常或大旱为主,8月以正常或大涝为主,结束年刚好相反。(2)(超)强厄尔尼诺起始年的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压面积偏小,位置偏东,而结束年的夏季,西伸脊点加强西伸,利于太湖流域降雨偏多。(3)(超)强厄尔尼诺起始年的全年编号台风以偏少为主,登陆台风正常略偏少,但事件的起始年夏季6~8月编号台风却以偏多为主,结束年秋季9~11月登陆台风以偏多为主;结束年6月降雨偏多,登陆台风向秋季集中,易造成流域持续洪涝,对防洪产生不利影响。
[Abstract]:In order to reveal the precipitation characteristics of Taihu Lake basin in summer (June to August) under the influence of El Nino events from 1951 to 2016, the precipitation status in the beginning and end years of El Nino events was analyzed. The results show that there is a certain relationship between rainfall and El Nino events in Taihu Lake Basin: (1) June and June-August of the beginning year of the weak intensity El Nino event, the precipitation in June and July of the end year are normal, the major drought and extreme drought are the main; In June and June ~ August of the start year of the middle intensity El Nino event, normal and heavy waterlogging are the main factors, and the same period of the end year is normal, partial drought and severe drought. The beginning year of the strong El Nino event was normal or severe drought in June, and normal or severe waterlogging in August. (2) in the summer of the beginning year of the strong El Nino event, the area of the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean was small. The position is eastward, and in the summer of the end of the year, the westward extension of ridges is strengthened, which is beneficial to the rainfall in Taihu Lake basin. (3) the number of typhoon numbers in the beginning year of strong El Nino is mainly less than that in the beginning year of strong El Nino, and the normal number of landfall typhoon is slightly less. However, the number of typhoon numbers in the summer from June to August in the beginning year of the event was more than that in the autumn, and the landfall typhoon from September to November in the end of the year was mainly more than the number of typhoons. In June of the end of the year, there was more rainfall and the landfall typhoon concentrated in autumn, which easily caused the continuous flood in the basin and had adverse effects on flood control.
【作者单位】：太湖流域管理局水文局(信息中心);河海大学水文水资源学院;
【基金】：城镇化快速发展背景下太湖流域防洪关键问题研究项目(201501014)
【分类号】：P333;P732

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