海底电力电缆风险因素分析及其评价
发布时间：2018-11-06 16:15
【摘要】：海底电力电缆是用于海上电力传输的重要方式。随着我国经济发展和新能源政策的推进,海底电力电缆市场得到了快速发展并且应用越来越广泛。相较于陆地电缆,海底电力电缆由于受到复杂海洋环境的影响,从设计、制造、施工、运行以及维修保护阶段都存在着极大的安全隐患和技术难题。一旦发生故障,不管是从经济方面还是社会影响,都会带来相当严重的后果。因此,对海底电力电缆系统进行全方面的风险分析具有十分重要的意义。 本文首先在大量研究相关文献的基础上,对海底电力电缆系统作了全方面的介绍。从海底电力电缆的发展开始,对海底电缆的结构特征、敷设安装过程以及可靠性分析方面都进行了详细的阐述。 其次,对现有的风险管理理论和风险分析方法做了介绍。包括风险的基本概念、风险分析的框架和步骤、风险的构成要素及其关系；按照风险分析的流程,建立了风险管理方法体系；重点介绍了海底电缆的几种风险评估方法。 再次,通过大量海底电缆的故障统计和风险因素的识别,结合海底电缆系统结构以及运行环境,构建了以第三方破坏、内部故障、环境影响、误操作为主的海底电力电缆风险评价指标体系。 最后,通过已构建的海底电力电缆评价指标体系,结合模糊数学和层次分析等数学方法建立了海底电力电缆系统模糊综合评价模型,并结合具体的工程实例对模型进行验证,确定了该工程的风险等级同时也证明了模型的有效性和合理性。
[Abstract]:Submarine power cable is an important method for offshore power transmission. With the development of economy and the promotion of new energy policy, submarine power cable market has been developed rapidly and applied more and more widely. Compared with terrestrial cables, submarine power cables are affected by complex marine environment, so there are great safety risks and technical problems in design, manufacture, construction, operation and maintenance and protection. Failure, both economic and social, can have serious consequences. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the risk of submarine power cable system in all aspects. In this paper, based on a large number of related literature, the submarine power cable system is introduced in all aspects. Starting from the development of submarine power cable, the structural characteristics, installation process and reliability analysis of submarine cable are described in detail. Secondly, the existing risk management theory and risk analysis methods are introduced. It includes the basic concept of risk, the framework and steps of risk analysis, the constituent elements of risk and its relationship; according to the process of risk analysis, the risk management method system is established; several risk assessment methods of submarine cable are introduced emphatically. Thirdly, through a large number of submarine cable fault statistics and risk factors identification, combined with the submarine cable system structure and operating environment, the third party damage, internal failure, environmental impact, The risk evaluation index system of submarine power cable based on misoperation. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by using the established evaluation index system of submarine power cable, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by combining fuzzy mathematics and analytic hierarchy process, and the model is verified by concrete engineering examples. The risk grade of the project is determined and the validity and rationality of the model are also proved.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P756.1
本文编号：2314797
[Abstract]:Submarine power cable is an important method for offshore power transmission. With the development of economy and the promotion of new energy policy, submarine power cable market has been developed rapidly and applied more and more widely. Compared with terrestrial cables, submarine power cables are affected by complex marine environment, so there are great safety risks and technical problems in design, manufacture, construction, operation and maintenance and protection. Failure, both economic and social, can have serious consequences. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the risk of submarine power cable system in all aspects. In this paper, based on a large number of related literature, the submarine power cable system is introduced in all aspects. Starting from the development of submarine power cable, the structural characteristics, installation process and reliability analysis of submarine cable are described in detail. Secondly, the existing risk management theory and risk analysis methods are introduced. It includes the basic concept of risk, the framework and steps of risk analysis, the constituent elements of risk and its relationship; according to the process of risk analysis, the risk management method system is established; several risk assessment methods of submarine cable are introduced emphatically. Thirdly, through a large number of submarine cable fault statistics and risk factors identification, combined with the submarine cable system structure and operating environment, the third party damage, internal failure, environmental impact, The risk evaluation index system of submarine power cable based on misoperation. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by using the established evaluation index system of submarine power cable, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by combining fuzzy mathematics and analytic hierarchy process, and the model is verified by concrete engineering examples. The risk grade of the project is determined and the validity and rationality of the model are also proved.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P756.1
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