基于多致灾因子相似的热带气旋检索方法研究:以风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估为例

发布时间：2019-02-21 13:47

【摘要】：热带气旋引起的风暴潮-海浪灾害成灾频率高、致灾强度大,对我国沿海地区造成的人员和经济损失惨重。预评估阶段需要在灾前对研究区可能造成的损失等进行快速的综合判定。从历史热带气旋中检索出与目标热带气旋位置及各种致灾因子强度相似的热带气旋是快速、准确地预评估风暴潮-海浪灾害的重要方法。面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估,提出了一种基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法。用于相似检索的致灾因子数据包括:从中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取并经处理得到的1949~2013年影响湛江市的112场热带气旋的路径中心点位置、中心气压、最大风速、最大风速半径及移动速度数据,112场热带气旋的模拟风场、风暴潮及海浪数据。首先,利用相似离度方法对热带气旋进行路径相似性检索;其次,利用最优相似系数方法计算中心气压、最大风速半径、最大风速、移动速度、风场、风暴潮及海浪强度指标的相似系数进行一次检索;然后,根据风场、风暴潮及海浪模拟数据的获取情况,分别基于路径-强度及风场-风暴潮-海浪综合相似性指标进行二次检索;最终给出历史热带气旋的综合相似排序。以2013年尤特热带气旋为例,利用上述方法检索了与其最为相似的5场历史热带气旋。该方法综合考虑了热带气旋路径及多种致灾因子的相似,兼顾了检索的速度及质量,是进行快速、准确的风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要基础。
[Abstract]:The storm surges caused by tropical cyclones have a high disaster frequency and high disaster intensity, resulting in heavy human and economic losses in the coastal areas of China. In the pre-assessment stage, the possible losses caused by the study area should be judged quickly and synthetically before the disaster. Retrieving tropical cyclones similar to the location of target tropical cyclones and the intensity of various disaster factors from historical tropical cyclones is an important method for rapid and accurate pre-assessment of storm surge-wave disasters. A similar tropical cyclone retrieval method based on multiple disaster factors was proposed for storm surge and wave disaster pre-assessment. The data of disaster-causing factors used for similar retrieval include: the path center position and central pressure of 112 tropical cyclones affecting Zhanjiang City, which were extracted from the best track data set of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean from China Meteorological Administration and processed from 1999 to 2013, and which affected Zhanjiang City from 1999 to 2013. Data of maximum wind speed, maximum radius of wind speed and moving velocity, simulated wind field, storm surge and wave data of 112 tropical cyclones. Firstly, the similarity retrieval method is used to search the path similarity of tropical cyclone. Secondly, the similarity coefficients of center pressure, maximum wind speed radius, maximum wind speed, moving velocity, wind field, storm surge and wave strength index are searched by the method of optimal similarity coefficient. Then, according to the acquisition of wind field, storm surge and ocean wave simulation data, the comprehensive similarity index based on path-intensity and wind field-storm surge-wave is retrieved, and finally the comprehensive similarity order of historical tropical cyclones is given. Taking Uter Tropical Cyclone in 2013 as an example, five historical tropical cyclones were searched by using the above method. This method takes into account the similarity of tropical cyclone path and various disaster factors, and takes into account the speed and quality of retrieval. It is an important basis for rapid and accurate pre-assessment of storm surge and wave disaster.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学数学科学学院;中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室;中国海洋大学海洋环境学院;
【基金】：海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305020)~~
【分类号】：P444;P731.2

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