潮汐发电缺电小时期望和电量不足期望计算
发布时间：2019-03-05 13:45
【摘要】：随着社会现代化进程的加快和能源消费的持续增长，能源需求缺口越来越大与化石能源储量逐渐减少的矛盾日益突出。因此，储量巨大、可再生、洁净无污染的潮汐能也必将成为未来的重要能源形式。但是由于潮汐形成的内在原因决定了潮汐具有日不均匀性和月内不均匀性，导致了潮汐电站出力具有周期性、间歇性和波动性，而且潮汐以太阴日变化和人类以太阳日活动的差异，造成潮汐发电波动与人类需用负荷变化的不匹配。随着海洋能源的大规模开发利用，有必要对潮汐发电系统的可靠性指标及计算进行研究，以便客观评估潮汐发电对电力系统可靠性的贡献。 本文计算缺电小时期望值(Hourly loss of load expectation)和电量不足期望值（Expected energy not served）两个可靠性指标，来衡量潮汐发电系统的充裕度，，同时引入“电量过剩期望值（expectation energy over served)”指标，来衡量潮汐时变电源与时变负荷的匹配度，依此评估潮汐发电的可靠性。 在广泛阅读国内外相关文献、研究潮汐发电运行特性的基础上，本文深入研究了潮汐发电的特点，建立了潮位预测与潮汐发电系统可靠性分析模型，研究了不同因素对潮汐发电可靠性的影响，完成的主要研究内容有： (1)分析了潮汐成因与调和分析法理论依据，建立了基于最小二乘法的潮汐调和分析计算模型，依此对研究海域8760个潮汐实际观测数据进行了潮位预测，得到了该海域全年潮位变化曲线。 (2)研究了潮汐发电的原理与运行特点，建立了潮汐电站库水位计算模型，依据单库双向运行方式潮汐电站运行参数，获得了潮汐电站库水位过程线。在此基础上，建立了潮汐电站时序工作水头模型。 (3)研究了潮汐发电的工况特点，建立了机组出力模型、机组停运模型、时变负荷模型等，采用适合潮汐发电特点的序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法计算了潮汐发电EENS和HLOLE两个可靠性指标和电量过剩期望值指标。研究比较了相同容量的常规机组、单库单向发电模式、与常规机组联合发电模式、机组数量增加、潮差变化等不同情况下可靠性指标的变化。 研究结果表明：潮汐发电可靠性极低、发电与负荷匹配度差、供电能力弱并且潮汐能利用率不高，但采取联合发电模式等措施可以提高其发电的可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of social modernization and the continuous growth of energy consumption, the contradiction between the increasing gap of energy demand and the gradual decrease of fossil energy reserves is becoming more and more prominent. Therefore, the vast reserves, renewable, clean and pollution-free tidal energy will also become an important form of energy in the future. However, due to the inherent reasons of tidal formation, the diurnal and intra-monthly inhomogeneity of tide is determined, and the output of tidal power station is periodic, intermittent and fluctuating. Moreover, the diurnal variation of tidal etheria and the difference of human solar daily activity cause the undulation of tidal power generation mismatch with the change of human demand load. With the large-scale exploitation and utilization of ocean energy, it is necessary to study the reliability index and calculation of tidal power generation system in order to evaluate objectively the contribution of tidal generation to the reliability of power system. In this paper, two reliability indexes, (Hourly loss of load expectation) and (Expected energy not served), are calculated to measure the adequacy of tidal power generation system. At the same time, "the expected value of excess electricity" (expectation energy over served) index is introduced. In order to evaluate the reliability of tidal power generation, the matching degree between time-varying power supply and time-varying load is measured. In this paper, the characteristics of tidal power generation are deeply studied, and the tidal level prediction and the reliability analysis model of tidal power generation system are established on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant literatures at home and abroad and the study of the operational characteristics of tidal power generation. The influence of different factors on the reliability of tidal power generation is studied. The main research contents are as follows: (1) the causes of tide and the theoretical basis of harmonic analysis are analyzed, and the calculation model of tidal harmonic analysis based on least square method is established. According to this, the tidal level of 8760 tidal observations in the studied sea area is predicted, and the tidal level variation curve of the sea area in the whole year is obtained. (2) the principle and operation characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the water level calculation model of tidal power station is established. According to the operating parameters of tidal power station in two-way operation mode of single reservoir, the water level process line of tidal power station is obtained. On the basis of this, a time-sequence working head model of tidal power station is established. (3) the working condition characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the output model, shutdown model and time-varying load model of the unit are established. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation method suitable for tidal power generation is used to calculate the reliability indexes of EENS and HLOLE and the expected value of excess electricity in tidal power generation. In this paper, the reliability indexes of conventional units with the same capacity, unidirectional power generation mode with single storage, combined generation mode with conventional units, the increase of unit number and the variation of tide difference are studied and compared. The results show that the reliability of tidal power generation is very low, the matching degree between power generation and load is poor, the power supply capacity is weak and the utilization ratio of tidal energy is not high, but the reliability of power generation can be improved by means of joint generation mode.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM612;P743.3
本文编号：2434966
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of social modernization and the continuous growth of energy consumption, the contradiction between the increasing gap of energy demand and the gradual decrease of fossil energy reserves is becoming more and more prominent. Therefore, the vast reserves, renewable, clean and pollution-free tidal energy will also become an important form of energy in the future. However, due to the inherent reasons of tidal formation, the diurnal and intra-monthly inhomogeneity of tide is determined, and the output of tidal power station is periodic, intermittent and fluctuating. Moreover, the diurnal variation of tidal etheria and the difference of human solar daily activity cause the undulation of tidal power generation mismatch with the change of human demand load. With the large-scale exploitation and utilization of ocean energy, it is necessary to study the reliability index and calculation of tidal power generation system in order to evaluate objectively the contribution of tidal generation to the reliability of power system. In this paper, two reliability indexes, (Hourly loss of load expectation) and (Expected energy not served), are calculated to measure the adequacy of tidal power generation system. At the same time, "the expected value of excess electricity" (expectation energy over served) index is introduced. In order to evaluate the reliability of tidal power generation, the matching degree between time-varying power supply and time-varying load is measured. In this paper, the characteristics of tidal power generation are deeply studied, and the tidal level prediction and the reliability analysis model of tidal power generation system are established on the basis of extensive reading of the relevant literatures at home and abroad and the study of the operational characteristics of tidal power generation. The influence of different factors on the reliability of tidal power generation is studied. The main research contents are as follows: (1) the causes of tide and the theoretical basis of harmonic analysis are analyzed, and the calculation model of tidal harmonic analysis based on least square method is established. According to this, the tidal level of 8760 tidal observations in the studied sea area is predicted, and the tidal level variation curve of the sea area in the whole year is obtained. (2) the principle and operation characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the water level calculation model of tidal power station is established. According to the operating parameters of tidal power station in two-way operation mode of single reservoir, the water level process line of tidal power station is obtained. On the basis of this, a time-sequence working head model of tidal power station is established. (3) the working condition characteristics of tidal power generation are studied, and the output model, shutdown model and time-varying load model of the unit are established. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation method suitable for tidal power generation is used to calculate the reliability indexes of EENS and HLOLE and the expected value of excess electricity in tidal power generation. In this paper, the reliability indexes of conventional units with the same capacity, unidirectional power generation mode with single storage, combined generation mode with conventional units, the increase of unit number and the variation of tide difference are studied and compared. The results show that the reliability of tidal power generation is very low, the matching degree between power generation and load is poor, the power supply capacity is weak and the utilization ratio of tidal energy is not high, but the reliability of power generation can be improved by means of joint generation mode.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM612;P743.3
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