基于GIS的舟山近岸海水营养盐时空分布特征分析

发布时间：2019-04-03 07:40

【摘要】：舟山位于长江口南侧的东海海域,海域环境受到长江、钱塘江等江河径流携带的陆源污染物影响(外源),同时又受到区域海洋经济发展产生的区域污染物影响(内源)。受内外源双重胁迫作用,舟山海域已成为我国近岸海域污染最严重的区域之一,营养盐是主要污染因子。为有效改善舟山海域的环境状况,需要对已有的多源数据进行挖掘,分析舟山近岸海水中营养盐含量的时空分布特征及其变化,探讨江河陆源输入与区域海上源、点源排放之间的影响变化,以明确海洋环境管理的方向和位置。论文从历史变化角度出发,综合了1990年、十一五‖及十二五‖规划期间舟山海域的营养盐调查数据,利用GIS空间分析技术,对舟山近岸海域海水营养盐的时间和空间分布特征进行全面系统分析;探讨了江河外源污染物输入、区域点源污染、海上污染源排放等内外源输入的相对变化情况,及其对海域环境的影响,提出了内外源共同作用下,舟山海域营养盐污染预测模型;最后,依据区域社会经济发展规划,分析了未来不同发展场景下,海域营养盐污染的变化趋势。论文主要研究结论如下:(1)海域营养盐污染空间分布特征,整体上呈西高东低、近岸高远岸低的分布规律,在三个时间段分布一致,但在后两个阶段,在内源的作用下出现了一些局部污染源,使西高东低的分布特征在局部区域不再明显;整体上后两个阶段的营养盐分布的东西差异与1990年类似,表明外源污染对海域营养盐的分布仍起主要控制作用。(2)海域营养盐时间变化特征, 十一五‖规划期间,舟山近岸海域活性磷酸盐和无机氮的浓度较1990年高, 十二五‖与十一五‖舟山近岸海域活性磷酸盐和无机氮的污染程度相比稍有好转。(3)从海域营养盐的时空分布特征可知,整体上外源仍起控制,但内源对局部海域营养盐含量的影响在不断扩大;依据两者的变化,构建了基于内外源变化的海域营养盐污染预测模型,并对十三五‖规划期内海域营养盐污染进行了预测。(4)污染治理对策:根据预测结果, 十三五‖规划期间,在仅考虑经济增长达到预期目标和经济增长、主要污染物减排量均达到预期目标,两种可能的发展模式下,舟山海域营养盐污染均呈加重的趋势;外源对舟山海域营养盐污染变化趋势始终处于主要控制地位。说明,未来一段时间内,舟山海域营养盐污染治理仍应以外源控制(长江流域污染治理)为主,同时不能忽视内源的增长。
[Abstract]:Zhoushan is located in the East China Sea to the south of the Yangtze Estuary. The marine environment is influenced by the land-based pollutants carried by the runoff of the Yangtze River, Qiantang River and other rivers (exogenous), but also by the regional pollutants produced by the regional marine economic development (endogenous). Under the effect of internal and external double stress, Zhoushan sea area has become one of the most seriously polluted areas in the coastal waters of China, and nutrient is the main pollution factor. In order to effectively improve the environmental condition of Zhoushan sea area, it is necessary to excavate the existing multi-source data, analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and changes of nutrient content in the coastal seawater of Zhoushan, and discuss the input of river land sources and regional marine sources. Changes in the impact of point-source emissions to clarify the direction and location of marine environmental management. From the point of view of historical change, this paper synthesizes the nutrient survey data of Zhoushan sea area during the 11th five-year Plan and the Twelfth five-year Plan period in 1990, and uses GIS spatial analysis technology. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of nutrients in the coastal waters of Zhoushan were analyzed systematically. This paper discusses the relative changes of external and internal inputs in rivers and rivers, regional point source pollution and discharge of marine pollution sources, as well as their effects on the marine environment, and puts forward that under the joint action of internal and external sources, Prediction model of nutrient pollution in Zhoushan sea area; Finally, according to the regional socio-economic development planning, this paper analyzes the changing trend of nutrient pollution in the sea area under different development scenarios in the future. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution characteristics of nutrient pollution in the sea area are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution characteristics of nutrient pollution in the sea area are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution characteristics of nutrient pollution in the sea area are as follows: Under the action of endogenous sources, some local pollution sources appear, which makes the distribution characteristics of the west high and the east low are no longer obvious in the local area; On the whole, the distribution of nutrients in the latter two stages is similar to that in 1990, indicating that exogenous pollution still plays a major role in controlling the distribution of nutrients in the sea area. (2) the temporal variation characteristics of nutrients in the sea area, during the 11th five-year Plan period, The concentrations of active phosphate and inorganic nitrogen in the coastal waters of Zhoushan were higher than those in 1990. Compared with the 11th five-year Plan, the pollution degree of active phosphate and inorganic nitrogen in the coastal waters of the 11th five-year Plan was slightly improved. (3) according to the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of nutrients in the sea area, the exogenous sources were still controlled as a whole. However, the effect of endogenous on nutrient content in local sea area is expanding. According to the changes of both, the prediction model of nutrient salt pollution in sea area based on internal and external changes is constructed, and the prediction of nutrient salt pollution in sea area during the planning period of the 13th five-year Plan is carried out. (4) pollution control countermeasures: according to the predicted results, During the period of the 13th five-year Plan, only considering that the economic growth reached the expected target and economic growth, the emission reduction of main pollutants reached the expected target. Under the two possible development modes, the nutrient pollution in Zhoushan Sea area showed an aggravating trend. The change trend of exogenous nutrient pollution in Zhoushan sea area has always been in the main control position. It is concluded that the control of nutrient pollution in Zhoushan sea area should be dominated by exogenous control (Yangtze River basin pollution control) in the future, and the endogenous growth should not be ignored at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P734.44

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