基于IPCC-CMIP5预估21世纪中国近海海表温度变化
发布时间：2019-05-19 22:18
【摘要】：观测事实表明,近百年来全球气候经历了显著的变暖过程,并且在人类活动排放的CO_2等温室气体不断增加的前提下,未来变暖将会持续下去.利用IPCC第五次评估报告中34个CMIP5模式对于未来不同CO_2排放情景下的输出结果,评估了未来百年中国近海海表温度(SST)的变化趋势.结果表明,基于当前人类的CO_2典型排放速度(RCP4.5),中国近海的大部分海区在2030年以后普遍升温并将接近或超过1℃(相对于1970~2005年的历史海温).其中,中高纬度海区的升温速率最为明显,黄海、渤海和东海的增温幅度明显高于南海,在2030~2039、2060~2069年和2090~2099年间的升温将会分别超过1、2℃和3℃左右.在CO_2加倍排放的情景下(RCP8.5),渤海在21世纪末最大升温可能接近5℃,从而成为全球升温幅度最大的区域之一.由此可见,未来气候变暖背景下中国近海的环境生态将面临严重挑战,这也使得控制减少温室气体的排放、降低气候变化的风险成为当前的紧迫议题.
[Abstract]:The observation results show that the global climate has experienced a significant warming process in the past hundred years, and the warming will continue in the future under the premise of increasing greenhouse gases such as CO_2 emitted by human activities. Based on the output results of 34 CMIP5 models in the fifth IPCC assessment report for different CO_2 emission scenarios in the future, the variation trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China in the next hundred years is evaluated. The results show that, based on the typical CO_2 emission rate (RCP4.5) of human beings, most of the sea areas off the coast of China will generally warm up after 2030 and will be close to or above 1 鈩，
本文编号：2481110
[Abstract]:The observation results show that the global climate has experienced a significant warming process in the past hundred years, and the warming will continue in the future under the premise of increasing greenhouse gases such as CO_2 emitted by human activities. Based on the output results of 34 CMIP5 models in the fifth IPCC assessment report for different CO_2 emission scenarios in the future, the variation trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China in the next hundred years is evaluated. The results show that, based on the typical CO_2 emission rate (RCP4.5) of human beings, most of the sea areas off the coast of China will generally warm up after 2030 and will be close to or above 1 鈩，
本文编号：2481110
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