基于报警数据库的化工过程风险动态分析方法

发布时间：2018-03-26 04:42

本文选题：报警数据库　切入点：风险管理　出处：《华东理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：化工事故发生频率低,但引发后果严重。分析化工过程中存在的潜在风险有利于加强化工生产过程风险管理,从而减小化工事故发生的概率。基于化工事故数据的传统风险分析方法由于事故数据不足而无法有效的运用于生产实践中。未遂事件是化工事故的先兆,未遂事件高频发生预示着化工事故风险增加。在化工生产过程中,集散控制系统(DCS)和紧急停车系统(ESD)报警数据库中记录了大量未遂事件,这些未遂事件数据包含了大量风险信息。通过对报警数据库中的数据统计分析可实现对生产过程风险评估。本文针对化工生产过程风险,基于报警数据库,提出一种化工过程风险动态分析方法。该方法以贝叶斯理论以及copula理论为理论基础建立模型,分别从频率以及概率的角度动态描述化工过程风险变化。在频率方面,本文将化工过程操作班组倒班特点融合到模型中,基于历史报警数据,预测某个班组在值班期间的未遂事件频率。当未遂事件频率越高,说明未遂事件发展成为化工事故的可能性越大。在概率方面,针对化工过程关键变量,考虑变量之间相关性,基于历史未遂事件动态评估各级未遂事件发生概率,从而评估出化工事故发生概率。采用该方法预测的未遂事件预测结果以及评估得到的化工事故发生概率客观的反映了化工过程风险水平,可被用做风险参考指标,提高化工过程风险管理水平,提高化工过程安全性。
[Abstract]:The frequency of chemical accidents is low, but the consequences are serious. The traditional risk analysis method based on chemical accident data can not be effectively used in production practice because of the shortage of accident data. The attempted accident is a precursor of chemical accident. The high frequency occurrence of the attempted incident indicates an increase in the risk of chemical accident. In the chemical production process, a large number of attempted incidents have been recorded in the alarm database of the distributed Control system (DCS) and the Emergency parking system (ESDs). The data of these attempted events contain a lot of risk information. The risk assessment of production process can be realized by statistical analysis of the data in the alarm database. This paper presents a dynamic analysis method of chemical process risk based on alarm database, which is based on Bayesian theory and copula theory. The paper describes the risk change of chemical process from the angle of frequency and probability respectively. In terms of frequency, this paper integrates the shift characteristics of chemical process operation shift into the model, and based on the historical alarm data, The higher the frequency of attempted incident is, the more likely the attempted incident is to develop into a chemical accident. In the aspect of probability, considering the key variables of chemical process, the correlation between variables is considered. Based on the dynamic evaluation of the probability of attempted events at all levels, Thus, the probability of chemical accident occurrence is evaluated. The predicted result of attempted incident and the probability of chemical accident obtained by this method can objectively reflect the risk level of chemical process, and can be used as a risk reference index. Improve the risk management level of chemical process and improve the safety of chemical process.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TQ02;TP311.13

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