基于贝叶斯网络的化工园区地震次生灾害情景分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 19:04

本文选题：贝叶斯网络 + 化工园区　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年12期

【摘要】：为了研究化工园区内发生地震灾害后的事故演化过程,利用事故链模型对地震次生灾害演化过程进行分析,并将其转化为贝叶斯网络,确定各节点的变量与状态取值范围;通过相关文献及专家经验判断分析,获得贝叶斯网络中各节点的条件概率;依据贝叶斯网络的推理策略,比较不同地震烈度下,各化工事故发生的后验概率值,并探讨应急救援的及时性对地震次生灾害发生概率的影响,从关键要素遏制化工事故的发生,采取针对性的应对措施,尽可能的降低化工事故,有效的降低人员伤亡及财产损失。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution process of the earthquake disaster in the chemical industry park, the evolution process of the secondary earthquake disaster is analyzed by using the accident chain model, and the Bayesian network is transformed into the Bayesian network to determine the range of variables and state values of each node.The conditional probability of each node in Bayesian network is obtained through the analysis of relevant literature and expert experience. According to the inference strategy of Bayesian network, the posteriori probabilities of chemical accidents under different earthquake intensity are compared.This paper also discusses the influence of the timeliness of emergency rescue on the probability of secondary earthquake disasters, and from the key elements to contain the occurrence of chemical accidents, take targeted measures to reduce the chemical accidents as far as possible.Effectively reduce casualties and property losses.
【作者单位】：中国安全生产科学研究院;北京化工大学化学工程学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801500)
【分类号】：TQ086

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