多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 13:27

本文选题：多米诺效应 + 储罐区　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年10期

【摘要】：为有效地减少和控制事故的多米诺效应,对影响事故扩展的关键装置,即脆弱单元的辨识及其有效控制措施进行了研究。根据具体的设计方案,依次选定不同储罐作为初始事故单元,借助ALOHA软件计算各储罐之间热辐射及冲击波相互作用强度的大小,与损伤阈值进行比较,并考虑设备间的协同作用,从而确定可能发生的多米诺事故;运用Probit模型计算事故扩展概率,根据计算结果通过Bayes Server软件建立贝叶斯网络,利用先验概率来进行整体脆弱性分析,从而确定各个方案的安全性;对优选的方案通过后验概率进行单元脆弱性分析,从而确定脆弱单元;在此基础上提出相应的控制措施。通过实例计算验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明,该方法能够在多米诺效应的预防和控制方面有效发挥作用。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively reduce and control the domino effect of accidents, the identification and effective control measures of fragile units, which are the key devices that affect the expansion of accidents, are studied.According to the specific design scheme, different storage tanks are selected as the initial accident units in turn. The magnitude of thermal radiation and shock wave interaction between the tanks is calculated by using ALOHA software, and the damage threshold is compared with each other.In order to determine the possible domino accident, the extended probability of the accident is calculated by using Probit model, and the Bayesian network is established by Bayes Server software according to the result of calculation.A priori probability is used to analyze the whole vulnerability and the security of each scheme is determined. Based on the analysis of the vulnerability of the selected scheme through a posteriori probability, the fragile unit is determined. On the basis of this, the corresponding control measures are put forward.The feasibility of the method is verified by an example. The results show that the method can play an effective role in the prevention and control of domino effect.
【作者单位】：沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院;
【分类号】：TQ086.2

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