液氯泄漏事故动态演化及救援行动决策研究

发布时间：2018-02-06 03:15

本文关键词： 液氯泄漏事故动态演化人群疏散物资调配救援决策　出处：《重庆科技学院》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：化工行业液氯泄漏事故属于高危突发事故，且针对该事故的救援行动方案复杂多样，文中主要讨论液氯泄漏事故的演化过程、最佳疏散路径以及救援物资调配方案，以期为救援决策人员提供科学的救援方案。具体研究内容如下：（1）分析目前已提出的多米诺演化模型、能量释放模型、动力学演化模型和突变演化四种演化模型，构建更加符合重庆天原化工4.16氯气泄漏事故动态演化概念模型，并在该模型的指导下定性分析重庆天原化工液氯泄漏事故的演化过程。（2）运用Matlab软件对泄漏液氯扩散演化过程进行实时模拟。在模拟过程中通过设定不同风速（1.5m/s、2.5m/s、3.5m/s），不同大气稳定度（A、C、E），不同时间（30s、60s、90s、120s、150s、180s）和不同泄漏条件（瞬时泄漏、连续泄漏），得出不同风速、不同大气稳定度、不同时间、不同泄漏方式的演化趋势。演化趋势结果表明：下风向泄漏氯气在地面浓度的演变过程受风速、大气稳定度、时间、泄漏方式四种因素共同影响。（3）根据氯气对人体的伤害标准，分别划分出吸入反应区（0.003mg/L）、轻伤区（0.01mg/L）、重伤区（0.04mg/L）、致死区(0.1mg/L)四个致灾浓度的覆盖区域，并分别分析风速、大气稳定度对下风向灾害范围的影响程度。（4）同时考虑疏散时间和道路通行速度两个因素，建立双目标优化条件下疏散路径的选择模型，模型考虑事故发生时由于人群恐慌而导致通行速度减慢这一影响因素，在一定范围内随机给出速度衰减参数，并设计求解该模型的蚁群优化算法。（5）以重庆天原化工厂泄漏事故为实例应用，划分出该事故的疏散区域，将疏散区域的路网通行信息物理模型转化为蚁群算法数学模型，计算出上午10时和下午17时的疏散区域内的最佳疏散路径、疏散通行时间和通行距离。（6）以调度时间最短、出救点最少和调度费用最小为目标，建立物资调配优化模型。在求解过程中考虑各个子目标之间的度量单位、优先程度和权重系数，以目标规划法将模型中的多目标函数转化为单目标函数。利用Matlab工具箱中的优化函数编程实现了模型求解，，通过实例分析确定物资调配最佳方案。
[Abstract]:The liquid chlorine leakage accident in chemical industry is a high-risk accident, and the rescue action plan for the accident is complex and diverse. This paper mainly discusses the evolution process of the liquid chlorine leakage accident. The best evacuation path and the relief material allocation plan, in order to provide the scientific rescue plan for the rescue decision-making personnel. The specific research contents are as follows: 1) analyze the domino evolution model, energy release model, dynamic evolution model and catastrophe evolution model. The conceptual model of dynamic evolution of chlorine leakage accident in Chongqing Tianyuan chemical industry is constructed, and the evolution process of liquid chlorine leakage accident in Chongqing Tianyuan chemical industry is analyzed qualitatively under the guidance of this model. (2) using Matlab software to simulate the evolution process of leakage liquid chlorine diffusion in real time. In the simulation process, different wind speeds are set at 1.5 m / s / s ~ 2.5 m / s / s ~ 3.5 m / s). Different atmospheric stability and different leakage conditions (instantaneous leakage and continuous leakage) are observed. The evolution trend of different wind speed, different atmospheric stability, different time and different leakage mode is obtained. The result shows that the evolution process of downwind leakage chlorine concentration in the ground is affected by wind speed and atmospheric stability. Time, leakage mode of four factors together. According to the standard of chlorine damage to human body, the inhaled reaction area was 0.003 mg / L, the light injury area was 0.01 mg / L, and the serious injury area was 0.04 mg / L). The lethal area is 0.1 mg 路L ~ (-1), and the influence of wind speed and atmospheric stability on the downwind disaster range is analyzed. At the same time, considering the two factors of evacuation time and road speed, the model of evacuation path selection under the condition of double objective optimization is established. Considering the influence factor of slow down of traffic speed caused by crowd panic when the accident occurred, the velocity attenuation parameters were given randomly in a certain range, and the ant colony optimization algorithm was designed to solve the model. Taking the accident of Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Plant as an example, the evacuation area of the accident is divided, and the physical model of road information in the evacuation area is transformed into the mathematical model of ant colony algorithm. At 10:00 and 17:00 in the morning, the optimal evacuation path, evacuation time and distance are calculated. Taking the shortest scheduling time, the least rescue point and the minimum scheduling cost as the target, the optimization model of material allocation is established. The unit of measurement, priority degree and weight coefficient among the sub-objectives are considered in the process of solving the problem. The multi-objective function in the model is transformed into a single-objective function by the method of objective programming, and the optimization function in the Matlab toolbox is used to realize the solution of the model.
【学位授予单位】：重庆科技学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TQ086

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