基于事故数据分析推导的全国及化工行业可接受风险标准基准值研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 16:42

本文选题：基础事故数据 + 搜集与推导　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年09期

【摘要】：为了探索行业风险可接受现状,印证已颁布的可接受风险标准中标准基准值选取的可行性,基于可接受风险标准理论,通过搜集、分析及估算全国及化工行业最近10 a的基础事故数据,采用平均个人风险值法(AIR)和事故累计概率-死亡人数曲线(FN曲线)法的运算思想,确定了全国及化工行业的死亡、受伤及职业病风险个人/社会可接受标准基准值,并通过数据范围的选择将其分为宽松型、通用型及严格型3种不同"严格"程度的基准值以备不同条件下选用。研究结果表明:死亡标准基准值通过与已颁布的标准基准值进行对比后发现2者均处于同一量级(10~(-4)),印证了彼此的可行性,受伤及职业病标准基准值可为后期该领域的研究提供参考。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the present situation of industry risk acceptability and confirm the feasibility of selecting the standard benchmark value in the published acceptable risk standard, based on the theory of acceptable risk standard, Based on the analysis and estimation of the basic accident data of China and the chemical industry for the last 10 years, the calculation ideas of the average personal risk value method (AIR) and the cumulative probability of accident death curve (FN curve) are used to determine the death of the whole country and the chemical industry. The individual / society acceptable reference value of injury and occupational disease risk can be divided into three kinds: loose type, universal type and strict type by the choice of data range, which can be selected for different conditions. The results show that the death standard datum values are in the same order of magnitude by comparing them with the published standard datum values, which proves the feasibility of each other. The standard reference value of injury and occupational disease can provide reference for later research in this field.
【作者单位】：西南科技大学环境与资源学院;西南科技大学非煤矿山安全技术四川省高等学校重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51404200) 四川省教育厅重点项目(14ZA0089)
【分类号】：TQ086

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