装载机可靠性快速分析和预计方法的研究

发布时间：2018-08-22 17:42

【摘要】：随着工程机械行业的竞争越来越激烈,竞争的方式也由初期的价格竞争过度到产品质量的竞争。同时,工程机械销售和服务网点完善健全,网络和计算机应用的普及使我公司积累了大量真实详尽的数据,使依据数据分析提高产品改进的改进速度和效果成为可能。本文针对我公司主要装载机产品,在大量的数据资源下,对公司装载机的主机和主要零部件故障率趋势进行了探讨和总结,并根据趋势对早期故障故障率发展趋势的预计方法进行比较。首先,简单介绍了公司主要机型装载机产品的产品结构和数据分析中的分类方法。对公司产品数据来源和包括服务站分布和数据分析的来源和流程等做了统计和介绍。并针对我公司主要机型,对主机和其中主要的30余种零部件统计保修期故障率并进行故障率趋势拟合。根据故障率趋势获得保修期内故障率回归趋势并进行拟合度判定,计算结果表明：根据大量的数据统计,保修期内零部件故障率统计结果均具有明显规律性。根据二次多项式对故障率趋势进行拟合,绝大多数零部件故障率符合程度(值)在以上,说明保修期内故障率完全符合…………曲线。其次,根据历史故整机障率趋势发展,依据早期故障率对整机在半年保修期内的最终故障率情况进行预计,并将预计结果与最终实际故障率进行比较,对预计的准确性和误差原因进行判断和分析。同时,在零部件产品质量异常趋势改变时,根据故障率增加趋势的延续性,统计早期故障率发展趋势并对后期故障率发展结果进行模拟预计,将预计结果和最后故障率反馈实际情况进行对比,分析根据早期故障率进行后期故障率的可行性。最后,对可能影响故障率预计的其他因素,包括季节因素、用户使用因素、工况因素和区域分布因素等,根据其在实际历史统计数据结果的影响进行总结,指出在故障率预计中需要综合考虑和处理的因素等。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly fierce competition in construction machinery industry, the way of competition is from the initial price competition to the product quality competition. At the same time, the construction machinery sales and service network is perfect and perfect, the popularization of network and computer application makes our company accumulate a large amount of real and detailed data, which makes it possible to improve the improvement speed and effect of product improvement based on data analysis. According to the main loader products of our company, this paper discusses and summarizes the failure rate trend of the main engine and main parts of the loader under a large amount of data resources. According to the trend, the prediction method of early failure rate is compared. Firstly, the product structure and classification method of main loader products are introduced. The product data sources, including the distribution of service stations and the sources and processes of data analysis are analyzed and analyzed. According to the main models of our company, the mainframe and its main 30 kinds of parts are analyzed and the trend of failure rate is fitted. According to the trend of failure rate, the regression trend of failure rate in warranty period is obtained and the fitting degree is judged. The calculation results show that according to a large number of data statistics, the statistical results of failure rate of parts and components during warranty period have obvious regularity. By fitting the trend of failure rate according to quadratic polynomial, the coincidence degree of most parts failure rate (value) is above, which shows that the failure rate completely accords with. Curve. Secondly, according to the trend of history, the final failure rate of the whole machine during the six months warranty period is predicted according to the early failure rate, and the predicted results are compared with the actual failure rate. Judge and analyze the accuracy and error cause of forecast. At the same time, when the abnormal trend of product quality changes, according to the continuity of the increasing trend of failure rate, the development trend of early failure rate is counted and the result of later failure rate development is simulated and predicted. The predicted results are compared with the actual situation of the final failure rate feedback, and the feasibility of the late failure rate based on the early failure rate is analyzed. Finally, we summarize other factors, including seasonal factors, user use factors, operating condition factors and regional distribution factors, which may affect the prediction of failure rate, according to the impact of the results of the actual historical statistics. The factors that need to be considered and dealt with in the prediction of failure rate are pointed out.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：TH243

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