制造企业工程变更影响评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-29 06:13

【摘要】：对于现代制造企业而言,工程变更是难以避免的,它广泛存在于企业的各个部门,涉及产品的整个生命周期,是企业生产经营中一项非常重要的活动。工程变更在给企业带来一定效益的同时也可能会对企业造成一定的损失,如何准确衡量变更的利弊大小,做出正确的变更决策,是工程变更管理中一项重要的研究内容。本文从变更影响评价的角度出发,提出了一个相对完善的工程变更影响评价理论体系,它能够定量地评价变更可能产生的效益和造成的损失以及变更存在的风险,得出一个综合的评价结果,作为变更决策的参考依据。论文首先对工程变更影响评价的基础理论做了深入研究,总结了现有的综合评价的方法及原则,确定了工程变更评价的关键技术。论文将层次分析法引入到变更评价当中,通过该方法,可以把复杂系统的决策思维层次化,把决策过程中定性和定量的因素有机地结合起来,将人的主观判断用数量的形式表达出来,使之条理化、科学化,从而避免由于人的主观性导致权重预测与实际情况相矛盾的现象发生,提高了决策的有效性和准确性。其次,论文对制造企业的工程变更评价因素进行了分析,提出从成本、效益和风险三个方面对变更进行评价,并以此为基础提出了评价指标体系的建立方法。在成本评价方面,分析了变更过程中成本的构成,并给出了详细的计算公式；提出用相似成本法在产品历史成本库的基础上结合指数平滑法估算变更后产品成本的方法；提出了总成本的计算公式。在效益和风险评价方面,提出了用层次分析法计算变更效益和风险因素评价指标权重,用专家评分法计算评价指标值的方法。在此基础上,论文提出了效益和风险评价值转换成货币当量的计算公式,将三种评价因素的评价结果综合成一个最终评价值,作为决策参考依据。最后,论文在理论研究的基础上设计了计算机辅助工程变更评价系统,该系统可以帮助变更评价人员准确高效地完成评价工作。论文分析了系统的功能需求和开发环境,详细介绍了系统的各个功能模块及工作流程,设计出了系统的工作界面并实现了关键的计算功能模块。
[Abstract]:As far as modern manufacturing enterprises are concerned, engineering change is unavoidable. It exists widely in every department of enterprise and involves the whole life cycle of products. It is a very important activity in the production and management of enterprises. Engineering change not only brings a certain benefit to the enterprise but also may cause some losses to the enterprise. How to accurately measure the advantages and disadvantages of the change and make the correct change decision is an important research content in the engineering change management. From the angle of change impact assessment, this paper puts forward a relatively perfect theoretical system of engineering change impact assessment, which can quantitatively evaluate the possible benefits and losses caused by the change as well as the risks existing in the change. A comprehensive evaluation result is obtained, which can be used as a reference for change decision-making. Firstly, the basic theory of engineering change impact assessment is deeply studied, the existing methods and principles of comprehensive evaluation are summarized, and the key technologies of engineering change evaluation are determined. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced into the evaluation of changes. Through this method, the decision-making thinking of the complex system can be hierarchical and the qualitative and quantitative factors in the decision-making process can be combined organically. The subjective judgment of human being is expressed in the form of quantity, so as to make it organized and scientific, so as to avoid the contradiction between weight prediction and actual situation due to the subjectivity of human being, and improve the validity and accuracy of decision-making. Secondly, the evaluation factors of engineering change in manufacturing enterprises are analyzed, and the evaluation method of evaluation index system is put forward from three aspects: cost, benefit and risk. In the aspect of cost evaluation, the composition of cost in the process of change is analyzed, and the detailed calculation formula is given, and the method of estimating product cost after change by using similar cost method combined with exponential smoothing method on the basis of product historical cost base is put forward. A formula for calculating the total cost is presented. In the aspect of benefit and risk evaluation, the method of calculating the index weight of changing benefit and risk factor by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is put forward, and the evaluation index value is calculated by expert scoring method. On this basis, the paper puts forward the calculation formula of converting the evaluation value of benefit and risk into currency equivalent, and synthesizes the evaluation results of three kinds of evaluation factors into one final evaluation value, which serves as a reference basis for decision-making. Finally, a computer-aided engineering change evaluation system is designed on the basis of theoretical research. The system can help the change evaluators to complete the evaluation work accurately and efficiently. This paper analyzes the functional requirements and development environment of the system, introduces in detail the functional modules and workflow of the system, designs the working interface of the system and realizes the key computing functional modules.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：TH186;F224;F406

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