煤矿采掘作业人员情景意识可靠性的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 09:33

本文关键词： 煤矿安全情景意识(SA) 贝叶斯网络感知理解预测　出处：《太原科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作业人员的不安全行为是煤矿事故产生的主要致因因素,已有研究表明情景意识错误是导致不安全行为的重要原因,是影响决策质量和作业安全绩效的关键因素。因此,研究煤矿作业人员的情景意识可靠性具有重要意义,可以为降低煤矿作业人员不安全行为的发生提供依据,为降低我国煤矿安全事故发生率提供有力措施。本文以煤矿采掘作业人员为对象,利用贝叶斯网络理论研究作业人员情景意识可靠性的影响因素。具体来讲,本文首先基于煤矿操作规程,从环境、组织、任务、个人四个方面分析了影响感知、理解、预测的主要因素,并利用语义-数字概率方法确定了贝叶斯网络参数,构建出感知、理解、预测的贝叶斯网络模型,进一步利用互信息值对参数独立性进行检验。然后,利用因果和诊断推理技术,对感知、理解、预测的贝叶斯网络模型进行分析,分别得到影响感知、理解、预测的主要因素。最后,利用串联系统可靠性向量法,分析各层次的主要影响因素对情景意识可靠性的安全概率及失效概率影响大小,从而深层次推理出影响煤矿采掘作业人员SA可靠性的主要因素。研究结果表明:培训、自然环境、设备可靠性、个人素质和经验及注意力是影响感知的主要因素;影响理解的主要因素是培训和心智模式;心智模式和个人素质和经验是影响预测的主要因素。此外,心智模式是影响煤矿采掘作业人员SA可靠性的最主要因素,其次是个人素质和经验及培训。
[Abstract]:The unsafe behavior of workers is the main coal mine accidents due to factors, studies have shown that situational awareness mistakes is an important cause of unsafe behavior, is a key factor affecting the quality of decision making and operation safety performance. Therefore, has important significance to the coal mine workers situational awareness reliability research, can provide the basis for the occurrence of coal mine operators of unsafe behavior, in order to reduce the incidence rate of China's coal mine safety accident to provide effective measures. The mining workers in coal mine as the object, factors affecting the use of reliability situational awareness Bias network theory research workers. Specifically, based on the coal mine operation rules, from the environment, organization, task, four aspects of the individual analysis of the impact of perception, understanding, the main factors predicting, and Bias network parameters were determined by using probabilistic method, the semantic structure of digital. A perception, understanding, Bayesian network prediction model, further the use of mutual information values to test the parameters of independence. Then, using causal and diagnostic reasoning technology of perception, understanding, analysis of the Bayesian network model for predicting the effects of perception, understanding, respectively, the main factors of prediction. Finally, the reliability of a series system vector method, analysis of main factors affecting the level of situational awareness reliability safety probability and failure probability of effect size, thus the deep reasoning out the main factors affecting the coal mining workers SA reliability. The results show that the reliability of the natural environment, equipment, training, personal qualities and experience and attention are the main factors influencing the perception of the main influence factors; understand is training and mental model; mental models and personal qualities and experience are the main factors that influence the prediction. In addition, mental model It is the most important factor affecting the reliability of SA in coal mining workers, followed by personal quality, experience and training.

【学位授予单位】：太原科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21;F272.92

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