现金流视角下靖远煤电财务预警研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 19:25

【摘要】：2015年中央经济工作会议提出将“去产能”作为重要任务。在产能过剩问题中,我国煤炭供需形势严峻,产能过剩严重,制约了我国经济的转型发展。煤炭行业也是受宏观经济影响较大的典型周期性行业,在国内外经济下行大环境下,煤炭行业受现阶段“去产能”、供给侧结构性改革等政策影响以外,我国能源结构清洁化、低碳化趋势等生态环境也制约着其发展。煤炭企业面临淘汰落后产能,减少煤矿数量,化解煤炭行业产能过剩,平衡市场供需,优化产业结构,转型升级等一系列挑战,导致其当前面临的风险日益加剧。如果缺乏风险防范,财务危机便会接踵而至。合理的财务预警可以及时有效的预测财务危机,以便企业采取相应的防范和应对措施,避免财务风险进一步恶化,最大限度减少风险因素带来的不利影响,促进企业良好、可持续发展。本文通过对国内外财务预警文献梳理与分析,以煤炭上市公司——靖远煤电为例,通过分析其目前经营情况和财务状况,以及当前公司预警现状和面临的风险,并依据煤炭企业专有的行业特征与其自身财务特性,从偿债风险预警、现金流量预警、资产管理风险预警、成长风险预警、煤炭行业特色风险预警、收入成本风险预警和资产权益报酬风险预警等七个方面以现金流量为基础,选取相应的财务预警指标,运用层次分析法确定所选财务指标权重,并向靖远煤电公司管理层及相关财务人员发放调查问卷进行隶属度的测定,通过运用模糊综合评价法,将定性指标和定量指标有机结合,构建现金流视角下靖远煤电财务预警指标评价体系,并将其运用于靖远煤电公司,检验其财务风险预警现状并判定警情的严重程度;另一方面,将非财务指标融入财务预警指标评价体系中,构建非财务指标预警体系,运用管理评分法,对公司非财务指标进行分析。通过对财务指标和非财务指标预警的综合分析,进行有效的财务风险预警,并提出相应防警和排警措施,以降低企业财务风险。
[Abstract]:In 2015, the Central Economic work Conference put forward to "deproductivity" as an important task. In the problem of overcapacity, the situation of coal supply and demand in China is severe and the overcapacity is serious, which restricts the development of our economy. The coal industry is also a typical cyclical industry affected by macroeconomics. In the downward economic environment at home and abroad, the coal industry is affected by policies such as "deproductivity" and supply-side structural reform at the present stage, and the energy structure of our country is clean. Low carbonization trend and other ecological environment also restrict its development. Coal enterprises are faced with a series of challenges, such as eliminating backward production capacity, reducing the number of coal mines, resolving overcapacity in coal industry, balancing market supply and demand, optimizing industrial structure, transforming and upgrading. In the absence of risk prevention, the financial crisis will follow. Reasonable financial early warning can predict financial crisis in a timely and effective manner, so that enterprises can take corresponding precautions and countermeasures, avoid further deterioration of financial risks, minimize the adverse effects of risk factors, and promote the good of enterprises. Sustainable development In this paper, by combing and analyzing the domestic and foreign financial early-warning documents, taking Jingyuan Coal Power Company, a coal listed company, as an example, this paper analyzes its current operating situation and financial situation, as well as the current situation and risks faced by the company's early warning. And according to the specific industry characteristics of coal enterprises and their own financial characteristics, from debt risk early warning, cash flow early warning, asset management risk warning, growth risk warning, coal industry characteristic risk early warning, On the basis of cash flow, the paper selects the corresponding financial early-warning index and uses AHP to determine the weight of the selected financial index, which is based on the income cost risk early warning and asset equity reward risk early warning. And to Jingyuan Coal and Power Company management and related financial personnel issued questionnaires to determine the membership degree, through the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the qualitative and quantitative indicators are organically combined. Build Jingyuan coal and electricity financial early warning index evaluation system under the perspective of cash flow, and apply it to Jingyuan coal and power company to test its financial risk warning status and judge the severity of warning; on the other hand, The non-financial index is integrated into the financial early-warning index evaluation system, and the non-financial index early-warning system is constructed, and the non-financial index of the company is analyzed by using the management scoring method. Based on the comprehensive analysis of financial index and non-financial index early warning, this paper carries out effective financial risk early warning, and puts forward corresponding measures to prevent and eliminate the financial risk in order to reduce the financial risk of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：兰州理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.21

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