尾矿库生命周期溃坝风险演化研究

发布时间：2018-10-24 15:16

【摘要】：为研究尾矿库溃坝风险的演化过程,有效预防溃坝事故,从生命周期视角,运用系统动力学(SD)理论建立尾矿库勘察设计、建造以及运行阶段的溃坝风险流图;结合尾矿库案例进行应用分析,揭示该尾矿库生命周期溃坝风险的动态演化特征;并探讨企业风险预警值、风险投入方案对尾矿库溃坝风险水平的影响。研究表明:随着时间的推移,尾矿库总体溃坝风险不断增加;勘察设计阶段,风险量在第40~55个月之间线性增长,风险速率变化曲线呈抛物线型;建造阶段,溃坝风险量出现台阶式的增长;运行阶段溃坝风险量波浪式上升,并在第60月达到最大值;企业风险预警值的改变对尾矿库溃坝风险水平预测有显著影响;勘察设计阶段增加风险管理投入,有助于降低和控制尾矿库溃坝风险。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution process of tailing dam break risk and prevent dam break accident effectively, from the point of view of life cycle, using the (SD) theory of system dynamics, the risk flow chart of tailing dam failure in the stages of investigation, design, construction and operation is established. Based on the application analysis of tailing reservoir case, the dynamic evolution characteristics of dam break risk in the tailing reservoir life cycle are revealed, and the influence of enterprise risk early warning value and risk investment scheme on the risk level of tailing dam break is discussed. The results show that the overall dam break risk of tailings reservoir increases with time, the risk increases linearly between the 40th and the 55th month in the survey and design stage, and the change curve of the risk rate is parabola. The number of dam-break risk increased step by step, the wave of dam-break risk increased in operation stage, and reached the maximum in 60th month, the change of enterprise risk warning value had significant influence on the prediction of dam break risk level of tailings reservoir. Increasing investment in risk management is helpful to reduce and control the risk of tailing dam break.
【作者单位】：山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院;北京石油化工学院安全工程学院;北京市安全生产科学技术研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(51474151) 山东省自然科学基金资助(ZR2014GQ015,ZR2012GM003) 山东工商学院博士启动基金资助(BS201710)
【分类号】：TD926.4

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