气候变化条件下农业低温灾害特征分析

发布时间：2017-12-26 15:49

本文关键词：气候变化条件下农业低温灾害特征分析　出处：《中国农业科学院》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来气候变化对我国农业生产产生了重大影响。研究气候变化背景下我国低温灾害变化特征,对我国农业合理适应气候变化具有重要意义。本文以气温和降水为主要研究对象,通过计算气候要素在1965-2014年间不同时间尺度的变化趋势分析我国近50年来的气候变化时空差异性;通过综合分析1992-2011年低温灾害、气温、生育期的变化情况,探讨该时段低温灾害的变化特征及其与气温、生育期变化的关系。研究得到主要结论如下:(1)近50年中,我国整体升温。北方升温升高趋势大于南方,在北方升温较强的地区,最低温度升高程度普遍高于平均温度和最高温度。降水变化方面,华东地区降水明显增多,西南、华北地区降水减少。东北、华中地区地区降水变化区域性差异较大,西北地区降水变化程度不大,以增加为主。(2)近50年中,不同月份间温度年际变化线性趋势不同。10月至2月,我国基本保持了一致的增温;3-9月,我国有明显的降温区域,其中以华中地区降温月份最多,程度最大。温度波动在冬半年以减弱为主;夏半年波动增强的区域增加。最低温度波动的减弱最为明显。降水明显变化主要发生在4月-10月。对西南地区降水减少贡献最大的是6月、8月;华北降水减少主要发生在7-8月。华东地区降水各个月份间差异最大,主要的增加月份是1月、3月、7月和8月,减少程度较大的月份是4月、5月和9月。(3)在过去50年中,东北、华北地区在第三个十年(1985-1994年)增温最快;华南、华中、西南、西北地区西南部以第四个十年(1995-2004年)增温最快。1975-1984年,华北、华中、华东等地气温下降;而2005-2014年间,我国大部分台站气温呈现下降趋势。降水方面,我国西北地区在50年中普遍为弱的增加趋势。西南、华北地区西部降水持续减少。东北和华南地区的东南部,华中地区北部以及华北的沿海地区近二十年降水一致减少。(4)在1992-2011年间,我国遭受霜冻害的站次总体减少,华东地区霜冻站次减少最多,华南和西北地区为霜冻站次增加的主要地区;冷害站次总体增多,东北地区冷害的增加最为突出,华南地区冷害站次增加,华中地区的冷害站次减少。(5)在1992-2011年间,东北地区7月、华南地区12月-1月的气温下降趋势使得该区域低温灾害站次增加;(6)在1992-2011年间,西北地区冬小麦返青拔节期提前、春玉米出苗提前使得西北地区在变暖的情况遭受晚霜冻害的站次增多;华东地区1月冬小麦停止生长期提前、油菜现蕾期推迟是该地区1月变冷但遭受霜冻害站次减少的重要原因。
[Abstract]: in recent years, climate change has had a significant impact on agricultural production in China. The study of the characteristics of the change of low temperature disasters in China under the background of climate change is of great significance to the rational adaptation of agriculture to climate change in China. Based on the temperature and precipitation as the main research object, through the change trend of climatic factors in different time scale calculated from 1965-2014 analysis of nearly 50 years of climate change of China's spatial and temporal differences; through the comprehensive analysis of 1992-2011 low temperature disaster, temperature, growth period change situation, explore the time variation characteristics of low temperature disaster and its relationship with the change of temperature, growth period. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the last 50 years, China has been heated up as a whole. The rising trend of heating in the north is greater than that in the south, and the minimum temperature rise is generally higher than the average temperature and the highest temperature in the areas with strong warming in the north. In the area of precipitation change, precipitation in eastern China increased significantly, and precipitation in southwest and North China decreased. The regional difference of precipitation changes in Northeast and central China is great, and the precipitation change degree in Northwest China is not large, which is mainly increased. (2) in the last 50 years, the linear trend of interannual variation in temperature varies between different months. From October to February, our country basically maintained a consistent increase in temperature; in 3-9 months, there was a clear cooling zone in China, with the most cooling months in Central China and the greatest degree. The temperature fluctuates mainly in the winter half year, and the region increases in summer half year. The lowest temperature fluctuation is most obvious. The obvious change of precipitation occurred mainly in -10 month of April. The largest contribution to precipitation reduction in Southwest China was in June and August, and the decrease in precipitation in North China mainly occurred in 7-8 months. The precipitation in East China is the largest in each month, the main increasing months are January, March, July and August, and the major months are April, May and September. (3) in the past 50 years, the northeast and North China increased the fastest in third ten years (1985-1994 years). The southwest of Southern China, central China, southwest and northwest has the fastest warming in fourth ten years (1995-2004 years). In the past 1975-1984 years, the temperature of North China, central China and East China declined, and the temperature of most stations in China declined in the last 2005-2014 years. In the area of precipitation, the northwest region of China has generally increased in the past 50 years. The precipitation in the West and North China is decreasing continuously. Precipitation in the southeast of northeast and Southern China regions, in the northern part of central China and in the coastal areas of North China have decreased in nearly twenty years. (4) in the 1992-2011 years, China suffered frost damage from the overall reduction in East China, frost times decreased most, the main areas of Southern China and the northwest region increased as the frost times; chilling times overall increase, increase the Northeast chilling injury is most prominent in Southern China area in Central China increased times of chilling injury, reduce chilling injury times. (5) during 1992-2011, temperature in December -1 month of July in Northeast China, Southern China area decreased increased the area of low temperature disaster stations; (6) during 1992-2011, the winter wheat turning green stage in the northwest, early spring maize seedling early in the Northwest has increased in the warming from WFD stations in East China; January winter wheat growth period of rape, stop early bud stage was delayed in the region in January but suffered cold frost times less important reason.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S42

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