未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响

发布时间：2018-01-07 16:17

  本文关键词：未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响　出处：《应用生态学报》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 烤烟 气候变化 适宜性

【摘要】：云南烤烟种植的气候适宜性分布将受到气候变化的深刻影响.根据云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的3个决定因子(7月平均气温、7—8月日照时数、4—9月降水量),利用1981—2060年的气候模拟数据及1986—2005年的气象台站实测数据,分析了1986—2005年及RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下2021—2040年、2041—2060年云南烤烟种植气候适宜性分布的变化.结果表明:未来气候情景下,云南烤烟种植气候适宜分布呈现北抬东扩的趋势,未来云南烤烟可种植区域将呈逐渐增加的趋势,且2041—2060年增幅大于2021—2040年、RCP8.5情景的增幅大于RCP4.5情景,其中,烤烟的最适宜区域、次适宜区域增幅均较大,适宜区域则变化不大.未来云南中北部烟区的昆明、曲靖、大理、楚雄、丽江最适宜区面积与可种植面积增幅较大,文山、红河、普洱、西双版纳等南部烟区最适宜区面积与可种植面积减幅较大.
[Abstract]:The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be deeply affected by climate change. According to the three determinants of climate suitability of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting (July mean temperature July to August sunshine hours). From April to September, the precipitation was measured by using the climatic simulation data from 1981 to 2060 and the measured data from meteorological stations from 1986 to 2005. The period 1986-2005 and 2021-2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were analyzed. The change of climate suitability distribution of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting in 2041-2060. The results showed that the suitable climate distribution of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco planting showed the trend of expanding from north to east under future climate scenarios. In the future, the growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan will gradually increase, and the increase in 2041-2060 is larger than that in 2021-2040. The increase of RCP 8.5 is larger than that of RCP4.5. Among them, the most suitable area of flue-cured tobacco, sub-suitable area increase is large, suitable area is not changed. Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong in the future tobacco area of central and northern Yunnan. The area and acreage of planting in the most suitable area of Lijiang increased greatly, and the area of the most suitable area and acreage of planting in Wenshan, Honghe, Pu'er, Xishuangbanna and other southern tobacco regions decreased greatly.
【作者单位】： 云南省气候中心;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201426)资助~~
【分类号】：S572;S162.54
【正文快照】： 本文由中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201426)资助This work wassupported by the Climate Change Special Project of China MeteorologicalAdministration(CCSF201426).2015-07-15 Received,2016-01-28 Accepted.气候变化已经深刻地影响了全球社会经济发展和人类健康生活[1],，

本文编号：1393312