张掖市水价改革的定量研究——基于引入水土账户的CGE模型

发布时间：2018-01-17 23:10

本文关键词：张掖市水价改革的定量研究——基于引入水土账户的CGE模型　出处：《资源科学》2016年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近几年黑河流域的水资源供需问题已经得到政府的关注,其中农业用水价格的调整是改革的重点。张掖市是黑河流域水资源的主要消耗区,本文以张掖市为例,采用引入水土账户的CGE模型模拟分析水价改革的经济影响和节水效益。结果表明:(1)水价改革对经济仅有微弱影响,仅带来0.091%的GDP损失;(2)但在节约用水方面的效益却很大,将节约9.568%的水资源使用、万元GDP耗水量下降9.384%;(3)节约的水资源类型主要是地下水,且全部来自用水强度高的农业;(4)水土资源在需求总量上减少了,并表现出从农业部门向非农业部门转移的趋势;(5)在行业产出上,仅玉米、果蔬等几个对水资源依赖程度高的农业部门受到打击,产出平均下降4.1%。综上,通过价格杠杆可以实现较好的节水效益,但要关注改革过程中对特色优势农业的冲击以及不同类型水资源之间的消费替代转移。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the government has paid close attention to the supply and demand of water resources in Heihe River Basin, and the adjustment of agricultural water price is the focus of reform. Zhangye City is the main consuming area of water resources in Heihe River Basin. This paper takes Zhangye City as an example. The CGE model introduced into water and soil accounts was used to simulate the economic impact and water saving benefit of water price reform. The result shows that water price reform has only a weak effect on economy. Only 0.091% GDP losses were caused; However, the benefit of saving water is very great. 9.568% of the water resources will be saved, and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP will be reduced by 9.384; 3) the main types of water resources saved are groundwater, and all of them come from agriculture with high water use intensity. (4) Water and soil resources decreased in total demand and showed a trend of shifting from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors; In terms of industry output, only corn, fruits and vegetables and other agricultural sectors that are highly dependent on water resources have been hit, with an average drop of 4.1 percent. In summary, better water-saving benefits can be achieved through price leverage. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the reform on characteristic advantage agriculture and the consumption substitution transfer between different types of water resources.
【作者单位】：中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所;中国农业大学经济管理学院;北京理工大学管理与经济学院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大集成计划(91325302) 国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项(2016YFA0602500)
【分类号】：F323.213
【正文快照】： 3.北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081;4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101)1引言水资源短缺在中国已成为一种常态,尤其在西北地区。黑河流域是中国西北部地区最大的内陆河流域之一,其战略意义十分重要。受绿洲农田生态系统水肥管理技术、灌区与绿洲不同尺度下

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