四川春玉米气象干旱致灾因子危险性

发布时间：2018-01-27 00:59

本文关键词： 春玉米气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数气象干旱致灾因子　出处：《兰州大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用四川省1961-2014年147个地面气象站逐日观测资料与四川省春玉米观测资料,运用气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数,建立四川省春玉米生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性模型,研究了四川省春玉米播种-出苗期、拔节-孕穗期、抽雄开花-吐丝期、乳熟-完熟期及全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性空间分布特征.结果表明:春玉米需水关键期发生特、重、中、轻概率的空间分布不同;春玉米抽雄开花-吐丝期气象干旱致灾因子危险性较大,拔节-孕穗期次之,播种-出苗期较小;春玉米全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性盆西北至资阳北部较高,高原西南部河谷地带次之,盆地西南部、凉山州东北部较低.
[Abstract]:Based on the daily observation data of 147 ground weather stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2014 and the observation data of spring maize in Sichuan Province, the comprehensive index of impact assessment of meteorological drought on agriculture was used. The risk model of meteorological drought disaster factors in spring maize growth period in Sichuan Province was established, and the sowing and emergence stage, jointing and booting stage, flowering and silking stage of spring maize in Sichuan Province were studied. The spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological drought disaster risk factors in milk-mature and full maturity periods. The results showed that the spatial distribution of special, heavy, medium and light probability of spring maize water demand was different. The risk of meteorological drought in spring maize was higher than that in jointing and booting stage, and that in sowing and seedling stage was smaller. The risk factors of drought in spring maize are higher from northwest to north of Ziyang, followed by valley in southwest plateau, lower in southwest basin and northeast of Liangshan state.
【作者单位】：成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所;
【基金】：干旱气象科学基金项目(IAM201304) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430206) 成都信息工程大学科研基金项目(KYTZ201305) 四川省软科学研究项目(2013ZR0081)
【分类号】：S423;S513
【正文快照】： 全球变暖导致极端天气事件频繁发生,灾情加重,灾害风险评估作为一种化被动抗灾、救灾为主动防灾、减灾的有效方法,越来越受重视.史培军m认为自然灾害是致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体共同作用的结果,许多学者基于这3因素进行了灾害风险评估及区划i2—71.张继权等[8]引人防灾减灾

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