安徽省五个农业区气候变化特点及粮食生产特点分析

发布时间：2018-02-15 21:59

  本文关键词： 安徽省 气候变化 粮食生产　出处：《安徽农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,气候变暖为全球主要气候变化趋势,气候变化存在很多风险,气候变暖会导致冰川融化、海平面上升,海水将侵蚀海岸甚至入侵沿海城市。气候变化也会使生态系统遭到破坏,导致生物多样性的减少等。极端天气气候事件的频率和强度都有增加的趋势,气候灾害将导致疾病发生的频率增加,影响了社会生活的稳定性。农业是生产周期长、主要受天气气候因素影响的产业。气候变化可能导致旱涝灾害高发、病虫害加重等问题,从而导致农作物减产,农业生产风险增大,影响我国的粮食安全和社会稳定。在气候变化背景下,正确的农业适应性对策,可以有效减少气候变化对农业生产造成的不利影响。本文通过对安徽省蚌埠、阜阳、合肥、安庆、屯溪五个代表性地区的年平均温度、年降水量、年蒸发量等农业气象因子变化及其与农作物产量关系的综合分析,分农业区研究了安徽省农业气候因子的气候变化事实、特征及其与粮食产量的关系,提出了农业领域应对气候变化的措施,得出以下结论:1.安徽省五个农业气候区的气温呈升高趋势,其中,年平均温度整体上由南向北递减,最大值则出现在安庆地区,为18.5℃,五个典型性农业气候区的气温均呈上升趋势,温度增长率分别为0.15℃/10a、0.72℃/10a、0.81℃/10a、0.17℃/10a、0.68℃/10a,增温最显著的是合肥,其增温幅度超过全国平均值。2.安徽省五个农业气候区的年降水量变化趋势较稳定,变率则呈增大趋势,降水量最大差值出现在黄山地区,为1794mm,且山区降水量高于平原地区和丘陵地区。蒸发则呈下降趋势,整体上由北向南递减,最大值出现在阜阳地区,为2219.4mm。3.气候变化对农作物产量的影响较大。安徽省五个农业气候区的粮食的相对气候产量正负变化频繁,多数年份的气候增减产情况较为一致,其中,气候增产最大值出现在黄山地区,为0.85 t/hm2,气候减产最大值出现在合肥地区,为3.84 t/hm2。4.加强对气候变化的科学研究和农业灾害性天气的中长期预测和预报。在基础研究领域(气溶胶、温室气体、固碳)、应用研究领域(森林碳汇)、低碳技术研发方面,不断改进和提高人类对气候变化的研究;加强对农业灾害性天气的中长期预测进而预报,合理规划一个详尽的观测系统和分析系统,同时建立完善抗灾体系,联系各政府部门积极配合预防工作,提高应变能力。5.调整农业结构、改善农业生态环境、大力推广适应气候变化的作物新品种。由于气候变暖,积温的增加,我省一熟区、双季稻区和三熟区向北迁移,合理调整种植结构,优化种植模式,选育更加适应的农作物新品种。因地制宜,发展农业要适应当地生态环境,因时因地制宜合理布局各地的农业生产力,从不同方面节省资源的浪费,回收利用生态资源。
[Abstract]:In recent years, global warming has become a major global climate change trend, and there are many risks to climate change. Warming will lead to melting glaciers and rising sea levels. Sea water will erode the coast and even invade coastal cities. Climate change will also destroy ecosystems, reduce biodiversity, etc. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will increase. Climate disasters will lead to an increase in the frequency of disease occurrence and affect the stability of social life. Agriculture is an industry with a long production cycle and mainly affected by weather and climate factors. Climate change may lead to high incidence of drought and waterlogging, aggravated diseases and pests, and so on. As a result, crops are reduced, agricultural production risks are increased, and food security and social stability in China are affected. In the context of climate change, the correct agricultural adaptive countermeasures, It can effectively reduce the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in five representative areas of Bengbu, Fuyang, Hefei, Anqing and Tunxi in Anhui Province were studied. Based on the comprehensive analysis of annual evaporation and other agrometeorological factors and their relationship with crop yield, the facts and characteristics of climate change of agricultural climate factors in Anhui Province and their relationship with grain yield were studied in agricultural areas. The measures to deal with climate change in agriculture field are put forward, and the following conclusions are drawn: 1. The temperature of five agricultural climate regions in Anhui Province shows an increasing trend, in which the annual average temperature decreases from south to north, and the maximum temperature appears at 18.5 鈩，

本文编号：1513973