未来气候变化背景下高温热害对中国水稻产量的可能影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-16 17:17

  本文关键词： 水稻 高温事件 高温热害概率 产量 RCP情景　出处：《地球科学进展》2016年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究分析了RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下2021—2050年我国水稻高温敏感期(孕穗期—乳熟期)高温事件的变化趋势(较基准时段1961—1990年),并利用1981—2009年水稻田间观测资料,明确了水稻高温减产的主导因子,构建了主导因子与水稻减产率之间的经验回归关系式,在此基础上预估了未来RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下我国水稻发生高温热害的风险变化。结果表明:1RCP2.6和RCP8.5气候情景下2021—2050年,全国各水稻种植区,水稻高温事件均有增加趋势,高温日数(HSD)、高温积温(HDD)都呈现增加趋势,高温持续日数(CHD)有延长趋势,其中华南双季稻区、长江流域单季稻区和东北单季稻区的HSD和HDD的变化幅度较为明显。2中国水稻高温中心在1961—2000年主要集中于湖南北部,与湖北省交界处附近,2种情景下2021—2050年均出现了向东北方向移动的趋势。3除东北区外,我国其余水稻种植区,孕穗—乳熟阶段的日最高气温连续3 d超过35℃以上的有效积温HDD2是导致水稻减产的第一大要素,两者之间具有显著线性负相关关系;而东北区水稻产量更易受到孕穗—乳熟阶段的单日日最高气温超过32℃的有效积温SDD2的影响,且两者呈现出显著一元二次曲线关系。4与1961—1990年相比,2种气候情景下2021—2050年我国水稻发生高温热害的概率增加较大的地区,主要集中在长江流域单季稻区的湖北和安徽的大部分地区,华南双季稻区的广东、广西、海南省的大部分地区以及东北单季稻区的南部。
[Abstract]:The variation trend of high-temperature events in high-temperature sensitive stage (booting stage to milk-ripening stage) of rice in China during 2021-2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios (compared with the baseline period 1961-1990) was analyzed and the field observation data of rice from 1981 to 2009 were used. The main factors of rice yield reduction at high temperature were defined, and the empirical regression relationship between the leading factors and the yield reduction rate of rice was established. On this basis, the risk changes of high temperature heat damage in rice under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in China are predicted. The results show that the high temperature events of rice in all rice growing areas in China have an increasing trend from 2021-2050 to 2021-2050 under the climate scenarios of 1% RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5. High temperature days (HSD), high temperature accumulated temperature (HDD), and high temperature duration (CHD) were all increasing, especially in South China double cropping rice region. The variation range of HSD and HDD in the single cropping rice region of the Yangtze River valley and the northeast single cropping rice region is obvious .2 the high temperature center of Chinese rice was mainly concentrated in the northern part of Hunan from 1961-2000. In the two scenarios near the border with Hubei Province, there is a trend of moving to the northeast in the year 2021-2050. 3 except for the northeast region, there are other rice growing areas in China. The effective accumulated temperature (HDD2) above 35 鈩，

本文编号：1516035