基于“Z指数”的吉林省雨涝灾害对农作物的影响评估

发布时间：2018-02-24 21:44

本文关键词： 安全工程 Z指数雨涝灾害评估研究　出处：《安全与环境学报》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：雨涝是造成作物减产或绝收的灾害之一。研究雨涝灾害对吉林这个产粮大省和商品粮输出大省有着十分重要的意义。利用"Z指数"计算了吉林省50个气象观测站1980—2011年逐年6月、7月和8月的雨涝发生等级(偏涝、大涝和重涝)。之后采用多元回归方法建立了全省农作物受灾面积和成灾面积与全省当年6—8月逐月偏涝发生站次、大涝发生站次和重涝发生站次的关系模型。结果表明,农作物受灾面积和成灾面积与全省偏涝发生站次回归不显著,与重涝发生站次和大涝发生站次成正相关。其中,重涝相关性最显著,其次是大涝。但农作物受涝除与降雨有关外,还与水利建设投入、土壤特性等其他因素有关。其中水利建设的影响较大,1998年后,吉林省加大水利建设投入,因此农作物受灾和成灾面积显著减少。综上所述,应加大水利建设投入,加强大涝年的准确预报和预警,以有效地切断雨涝灾害链,减少损失。
[Abstract]:Rain and waterlogging is one of the disasters that result in the reduction of crop yield or the end of crop harvest. It is very important to study the rain and waterlogging disaster for Jilin Province, which is a big grain-producing province and a big commodity grain export province. The 50 meteorological observation stations in Jilin Province are calculated by using "Z index". From 1980 to 2011, on June, July and August, the grades of rain and waterlogging occurred (partial waterlogging). After that, the multivariate regression method was used to establish a model of the relationship between the affected area and the area affected by crops and the occurrence stations of partial waterlogging, heavy waterlogging and heavy waterlogging in June and August of that year in the province. The results show that the relationship between the number of stations and the number of stations of heavy waterlogging occurred in June and August of that year. Crop disaster area and disaster area were not significantly correlated with partial waterlogging occurrence stations in the province, but positively correlated with heavy waterlogging occurrence stations and severe waterlogging occurrence stations, among which, heavy waterlogging had the most significant correlation. The second is serious waterlogging. But the waterlogging of crops is not only related to rainfall, but also related to water conservancy construction investment, soil characteristics and other factors. Water conservancy construction has a greater impact. After 1998, Jilin Province increased water conservancy construction investment. To sum up, we should increase investment in water conservancy construction, strengthen accurate forecast and early warning in flood years, so as to effectively cut off the chain of rain and waterlogging disasters and reduce losses.
【作者单位】：吉林省气象科学研究所中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室;
【基金】：中国气象局公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206018) 吉林省气象局气象科技创新基金项目
【分类号】：S422

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