化肥施用强度对中国粮食单产的影响分析——基于省级面板数据的分位数回归

发布时间：2018-02-25 02:22

本文关键词： 化肥施用强度粮食单产分位数回归区域分异边际效用化肥施用零增长　出处：《农业现代化研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在分析中国粮食作物化肥施用特征的基础上,运用分位数回归模型探究了1994年以来化肥施用强度对早籼稻、中籼稻、晚籼稻、粳稻、小麦、玉米6种粮食单产水平的影响。研究表明:1)中国粮食作物的化肥施用强度增长具有明显的阶段性特征;6种粮食作物的化肥施用强度持续增加,且均超出国际安全施用标准;小麦与玉米的化肥施用强度显著高于水稻;部分品种的化肥施用强度已出现优势产区和非优势产区、东中西部的区域差异。2)粮食作物的化肥施用强度与其单产水平具有显著的关联效应。3)晚籼稻、粳稻和玉米的化肥施用强度对其单产仍存在正向作用,但已呈现边际效用递减特征;小麦、早籼稻和中籼稻的这种影响不再显著,已有过度施用特征。今后在坚持化肥施用零增长前提下,注重科学施用化肥、有效提高化肥利用率,在保障粮食安全与促进农业可持续发展之间达成平衡,是坚持中国特色农业现代化道路的必然要求。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of chemical fertilizer application characteristics of grain crops in China, the effects of chemical fertilizer application intensity on early indica rice, middle indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice and wheat since 1994 were studied by quantile regression model. The study shows that the increase of fertilizer application intensity of grain crops in China has obvious stage characteristics: the intensity of chemical fertilizer application of 6 kinds of grain crops continues to increase, and all of them exceed the international safe application standard; The chemical fertilizer application intensity of wheat and maize was significantly higher than that of rice. (2) there was significant correlation between fertilizer application intensity and yield level of grain crops. 3) in late indica rice, fertilizer intensity of japonica rice and maize still had positive effect on yield. However, the effect of wheat, early indica rice and medium indica rice is no longer significant and has been overapplied. In the future, we should pay attention to the scientific application of chemical fertilizer on the premise of zero growth of chemical fertilizer application, so as to effectively improve the fertilizer utilization efficiency. To strike a balance between ensuring food security and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture is an inevitable requirement for adhering to the road of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics.
【作者单位】：贵州大学经济学院;贵州大学中国西部发展能力研究中心;江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71473052,71273069) 国务院发展研究中心2016年委托项目贵州省教育厅青年学术创新人才项目(JYT2016004)~~
【分类号】：S143

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