安徽省城镇化与耕地利用集约化的动态响应关系

发布时间：2018-02-28 04:01

本文关键词： 土地利用整治模型城镇化耕地利用集约化 VAR模型脉冲函数　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为分析城镇化与耕地利用集约化的动态关系,促进新型城镇化与农业现代化协调发展,该文在构建城镇化与耕地利用集约化动态响应关系理论框架的基础上,基于传统农区安徽省1998—2014年相关数据,建立向量自回归(vector autoregression VAR)模型,检验两者之间的协整关系,并在此基础上运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析城镇化与耕地利用集约化的互馈关系。结果表明,复种指数对城镇人口比例冲击的响应先为负向后为正向,贡献率为14.4%;对二三产业比例和土地城镇化则均产生负向响应,并呈先增加后减少的趋势,贡献率分别为10.4%、15.6%。化肥投入对城镇人口比例的冲击产生正向的响应,贡献率为12.1%;对二三产业比例有正向和负向响应,反应强度先增加后减少,解释水平为1.2%;对土地城镇化产生先增加后趋于平稳的负向响应,贡献率为22.3%。农业机械总动力对城镇人口比例的反应为正向的先增加后趋于平稳,贡献率为20.3%;对二三产业比例的负向响应的解释水平为2.4%;对土地城镇化的冲击呈现负向增加的响应,且贡献率高达66.3%。总体来看,城镇化水平的提高对耕地利用集约化有正向推动作用,但集约化需要适度发展,过快的城镇化不利于可持续集约化的实现;耕地利用集约化对城镇化的影响程度相对较低,说明耕地集约利用水平的提高仅可在一定程度上支持城镇化的发展。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the dynamic relationship between urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land and promote the harmonious development of new urbanization and agricultural modernization, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of dynamic response relationship between urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land. Based on the data of Anhui Province from 1998 to 2014, a vector autoregressive vector autoregression var model was established to test the cointegration relationship between them. On the basis of this, the mutual feed relation between urbanization and the intensification of cultivated land utilization is analyzed by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The results show that the response of multiple cropping index to the impact of urban population proportion is negative first and then positive. The contribution rate was 14.40.There was a negative response to the ratio of the secondary and tertiary industries and the urbanization of the land, which increased first and then decreased, and the contribution rates were 10.4 and 15.6.The chemical fertilizer input had a positive response to the impact of the proportion of the urban population. The contribution rate is 12. 1%; there is a positive and negative response to the ratio of the second and third industries, the intensity of the reaction first increases and then decreases, and the explanation level is 1.2; the negative response to the urbanization of the land increases first and then tends to steady. The contribution rate was 22.30.The response of the total power of agricultural machinery to the proportion of urban population increased first and then stabilized. The contribution rate is 20.3g; the explanation level of negative response to the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries is 2.4; the response to the impact of urbanization on land shows a negative increase, and the contribution rate is as high as 66.3%. Overall, The improvement of urbanization level has a positive role in promoting the intensive use of cultivated land, but it needs moderate development, too fast urbanization is not conducive to the realization of sustainable intensification, and the degree of impact of intensive use of cultivated land on urbanization is relatively low. It shows that the improvement of cultivated land intensive utilization level can only support the development of urbanization to a certain extent.
【作者单位】：安徽机电职业技术学院;中国土地勘测规划院;
【基金】：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项“新型城镇化的区域国土空间利用质量提升技术”(201411014)
【分类号】：F224;F299.27;F323.211

【相似文献】