基于可变模糊和灰色理论的贵州省农业旱灾脆弱性评价

发布时间：2018-03-03 05:11

本文选题：可变模糊　切入点：旱灾脆弱性　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从自然因素、社会因素、生态因素等3个层面选取12个指标,构建基于模糊灰色系统理论评价模型,对贵州省农业旱灾脆弱性进行初步探讨。结果表明:贵州省生态环境脆弱,易诱发旱灾且恢复力差,9个脆弱性分区中,有6个严重分区,3个中度分区;用4个典型指标与综合评价结果进行灰色关联度分析,得出喀斯特地区农业旱灾脆弱性与这4种因素都有关联性,其关联程度大小顺序为:地表水资源量GDP人口喀斯特面积。喀斯特分布面积对贵州省农业旱灾脆弱性具有一定程度的影响,但是,经济的发展、科技的进步以及人文因素的作用,正逐渐弱化着喀斯特对农业旱灾脆弱性的影响力。
[Abstract]:12 indexes were selected from natural factors, social factors and ecological factors, and based on fuzzy grey system theory evaluation model, the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Guizhou Province was preliminarily discussed. The results showed that the ecological environment of Guizhou Province was fragile. The drought is easy to induce and the resilience is poor. Among the 9 vulnerability zones, there are 6 severe and 3 moderate, and 4 typical indexes are used to analyze the grey correlation degree with the results of comprehensive evaluation. It is concluded that the vulnerability of agricultural drought in karst area is related to these four factors. The order of correlation degree is: surface water resource GDP population karst area. Karst distribution area has a certain degree of influence on agricultural drought vulnerability in Guizhou Province. However, economic development, Advances in science and technology and the role of human factors are weakening the impact of karst on agricultural drought vulnerability.
【作者单位】：贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(编号:41263011) 贵州省水利厅自然科研基金(编号:KT201402)
【分类号】：S423

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