京津冀地区耕地面积变化驱动力的空间差异分析

发布时间：2018-03-07 23:36

本文选题：耕地面积变化　切入点：空间自相关　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：基于ArcGIS的空间分析功能,本文对京津冀地区2000年和2010年耕地数量变化和空间特征进行了剖析,从自然、社会经济和空间距离三个角度选取指标,在基于空间自相关分析与最小二乘法分析的基础上,构建了 GWR模型,探讨了京津冀地区耕地变化的驱动力,研究结果表明:一是京津冀地区2000-2010年耕地变化呈现出先减少后增加然后趋于相对稳定的状态,耕地变化总体还是以净减少为主,其减少部分多被建设用地所占用,耕地是建设用地增加的主要来源。京津冀地区人口重心向北移动而耕地重心向南移动,且人口重心的变化距离要大于耕地重心的变化距离。二是京津冀地区2000-2010年耕地变化的驱动力中自然驱动力、社会经济'驱动力以及空间距离驱动力都对耕地面积变化具有明显的空间相关性。自然驱动力在空间上分布不均,南北差异明显。社会经济驱动力总体表现为北部低低聚集,中部高高聚集,且在时间上在向南扩展;到最近公路距离和到最近铁路距离对耕地变化影响相关性显著,表明空间距离指标对其邻近耕地变化具有显著的区位影响。三是从模型来看CWR模型分析耕地变化驱动力效果要优于最小二乘法,从回归结果来看,化肥折纯量、农机总动力、到最近居民点指标、GDP变化、人口密度变化指标总体表现为负效应,到最近河流距离和到最近公路距离总体表现为正效应,但不同区域之间略有差异。
[Abstract]:Based on the ArcGIS spatial analysis function, this paper changes the number of 2000 and 2010 in Beijing Tianjin Hebei area of cultivated land and spatial characteristics are analyzed from the natural, social and economic aspects and space distance of three selected indicators, based on analyzing the autocorrelation analysis and least square method based on space, constructed the GWR model, the driving force of change the cultivated land of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the results of the study show that: one is the change of cultivated land for 2000-2010 years in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region showed decreased first and then increased and then tended to be relatively stable, the change of cultivated land in general or net reduction, the reduction is part of construction land occupied, arable land is the main source of the increase of construction land in Beijing Tianjin Hebei. The population shifted to the north and the center of cultivated land change and the population moved south, center distance should be more than two. The distance of the center of cultivated land is cultivated for 2000-2010 years in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region The natural driving force driving force change, has obvious spatial correlation of cultivated land area change on social and economic driving forces' driving force and driving force in natural space. Space distribution and the difference between South and north is obvious. The overall performance of the northern low accumulation social and economic driving forces, the central high aggregation, and in time in the southward expansion to the nearest distance to highway; and a significant recent railway distance influence on cultivated land change correlation indicates that the spatial distance has a significant impact on the location of adjacent farmland change. The three is from the model CWR model analysis of driving forces of cultivated land change is better than the least squares method, from the regression results, quantity of pure fertilizer and the total power of agricultural machinery, to the nearest residential index, GDP change, change of population density index of the overall performance of the negative effects, to the nearest distance to the nearest river and highway distance overall performance Positive effects, but there is a slight difference between different regions.

【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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