基于生态足迹的湖南省农林业可持续发展评估

发布时间：2018-03-10 04:26

本文选题：生态足迹　切入点：生态承载力　出处：《中南林业科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农林业的可持续发展是可持续发展概念和农村领域发展的延伸,同时农林业可持续发展是世界性的重要研究。湖南省是全国的农林业大省,湖南省农林业的发展与环境资源的关系极为密切。由于对农林业资源的不合理利用,湖南省出现雾霾、农用地膜引起的土壤保水保肥能力下降、化肥的不合理使用引起的面源污染等。因此,湖南省农林业的可持续发展研究是实现湖南省可持续发展政策方针的根本保证,对湖南省生态环境的保护具有重大的现实意义。本文通过生态足迹模型的方法,将湖南省农林业2004年至2012年主要消耗的物质资源总量和各地类中消耗的物质资源实际面积量化,得到生态足迹和生态承载力的生物生产面积,并得到生态足迹、生态承载力以及生态赤字随年份变化的动态特征,定量地判断湖南省农林业发展是否可持续,并对结果进行分析讨论,以及对未来湖南省农林可持续性发展进行预测,提出改善措施与建设性意见。结果表明：(1)2004年至2012年,湖南省农林业生态足迹结构中,农业耕地类型占比例高达89.75%～93.87%,属于林地类型只占6.13%～10.25%。(2)2004年开始到2012年湖南省农林业的人均生态足迹整体呈现上升趋势,从2004年的0.77hm2上升至2012年的0.8814hm2,增幅为14.47%。(3)2004年至2012年间的农林业整体的人均生态承载力呈现小幅上升趋势,从2004年的0.7177hm2上升到了2012年的0.7271hm2,上升的幅度为1.31%。(4)在2004年至2012年间湖南省的农林业人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力均呈上升趋势时,从人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的基数的对比和变化速率的对比分析,整个湖南省农林业的生态赤字从2004年0.0523hm2上升至2012年的0.1543hm2。(5)SPSS17.0回归分析得到人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力以及生态赤字的曲线估计,模型表明2016年至2026年湖南省农林业的生态赤字从0.195hm2逐渐扩大至0.295hm2。结论表明：由于湖南省耕地和林地被人为直接或者间接的破坏,在发展模式稳定不变的情况下未来10年内湖南省农林业的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力之间存在相当严重的矛盾,湖南省农林业的供需量将处于不平衡状态,生态环境恶化加重,区域发展模式正处于一种不可持续发展模式。
[Abstract]:The sustainable development of agriculture and forestry is an extension of the concept of sustainable development and the development of rural areas. At the same time, the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry is an important research in the world. The development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is closely related to the environmental resources. As a result of irrational utilization of agricultural and forestry resources, haze appears in Hunan Province, and the ability of soil moisture and fertilizer conservation caused by agricultural mulching film decreases. Therefore, the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is the fundamental guarantee to realize the policy of sustainable development of Hunan Province. It is of great practical significance to protect the ecological environment of Hunan Province. Through the method of ecological footprint model, this paper quantifies the total amount of material resources consumed by agriculture and forestry from 2004 to 2012 and the actual area of material resources consumed in various categories in Hunan Province. The biological production area of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity is obtained, and the dynamic characteristics of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit over time are obtained, and the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is quantitatively judged. The results are analyzed and discussed, and the sustainable development of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is forecasted. The improvement measures and constructive suggestions are put forward. The results show that from 2004 to 2012, the ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province is in the structure of ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry. The proportion of agricultural cultivated land type is as high as 89.75% and 93.87%, and that of forest land type is only 6.13% 10.25%.) from 2004 to 2012, the per capita ecological footprint of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province as a whole showed an upward trend. From 0.77 hm ~ 2 in 2004 to 0.8814 hm ~ 2 in 2012, the increase was 14.47%. The ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry as a whole increased slightly from 2004 to 2012. From 0.7177 hm ~ 2 in 2004 to 0.7271 hm ~ (2) in 2012, the range of increase was 1.31 cm ~ (-1). During 2004 to 2012, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry per capita in Hunan Province showed an increasing trend. Based on the comparison of ecological footprint per capita and the base of ecological carrying capacity per capita and the comparative analysis of change rate, the ecological deficit of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province increased from 0.0523 hm ~ 2 on 2004 to 0.1543 hm ~ 2 路m ~ (5) SPSS 17.0 regression analysis on 2012, and the ecological footprint per capita was obtained. From 2016 to 2026, the ecological deficit of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province gradually expanded from 0.195 hm ~ 2 to 0.295 hm ~ 2. The conclusion is that the cultivated land and forest land in Hunan Province were destroyed directly or indirectly. There is a serious contradiction between the ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province in the next 10 years, and the supply and demand of agriculture and forestry in Hunan Province will be in an unbalanced state. The deterioration of ecological environment is aggravated, and the regional development model is in an unsustainable development mode.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.22;X22

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