基于生育时段的湖南省早稻洪涝等级指标及时空变化特征

发布时间：2018-03-12 10:00

本文选题：早稻　切入点：生育时段　出处：《生态学杂志》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究早稻洪涝气象指标对实时开展区域早稻洪涝灾害监测预警与评估具有现实意义。本文以湖南省早稻为研究对象,利用湖南省68个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象资料、早稻灾情史料,以及早稻生育期资料,筛选基于水稻生育时段、洪涝等级、过程降水量的洪涝灾害样本385个,得到早稻移栽-拔节期、孕穗-抽穗期、乳熟-成熟期的轻、中、重度灾害样本集合9组。采用K-S检验法和学生氏t-分布置信区间方法界定早稻不同生育时段、不同等级洪涝灾害的过程降水量指标阈值,构建基于生育时段的湖南早稻洪涝等级指标,进行独立样本验证。依据建立的洪涝等级指标和Arc GIS技术,分析1961—2010年湖南早稻各生育时段洪涝的时空分布特征。结果表明:各生育时段轻度、中度、重度洪涝下限阈值分别为移栽-拔节期,129、154、241 mm;孕穗-抽穗期,135、170、260 mm;乳熟-成熟期,145、190、295 mm。指标验证结果与历史记录有较好的一致性;1961年以来湖南早稻总洪涝次数总体呈现增加趋势,重度洪涝主要发生在岳阳北部和郴州南部地区;移栽-拔节期洪涝主要发生在湘东及湘南地区,孕穗-抽穗期洪涝主要位于湘东与湘中地区,乳熟-成熟期洪涝主要位于湘东北和湘中以北地区;20世纪90年代是湖南近50年早稻洪涝灾害最为严重的年代,全生育期间均有高频次、高强度的洪涝发生;2000年后早稻在移栽-拔节期和孕穗-抽穗期洪涝主发区有所变化,前者增加了湘中部地区,后者增加了湘中东部至南部地区。
[Abstract]:It is of practical significance to study the meteorological indexes of early rice flood and waterlogging to carry out the monitoring and early warning of regional early rice flood disaster in real time. This paper takes early rice in Hunan Province as the research object and makes use of the daily meteorological data of 68 meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1961 to 2010. According to the historical data of early rice disaster and the data of early rice growth period, 385 flood disaster samples were selected based on rice growing period, flood grade and process precipitation, and the light and medium of early rice transplantation-jointing stage, booting and heading stage, milk-ripening stage were obtained. The K-S test method and the confidence interval method of student t- distribution were used to determine the index threshold of precipitation in different growing period and different grade flood disaster of early rice. The flood grade index of Hunan early rice was constructed based on the growing period, and the independent sample was used to verify it. According to the flood grade index and Arc GIS technology, The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood and waterlogging in Hunan early rice growing period from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that each growing period was mild and moderate. The lower threshold values of severe flood are: transplanting-jointing stage 1541mm; booting stage -heading stage: 135o ~ (170) mm; milk-ripening stage (~ 145o) 190295mmm. the results of index verification are in good agreement with historical records, and the total flood frequency of Hunan early rice has been increasing since 1961, and the total flood frequency of Hunan early rice has been increasing since 1961, and the total flood frequency of Hunan early rice has been increasing since 1961, and the total flood frequency of Hunan early rice has been increasing since 1961. Heavy flooding occurred mainly in the northern part of Yueyang and southern Chenzhou, flood occurred mainly in eastern Hunan and southern Hunan during transplantation-jointing stage, and in boot-heading stage it was mainly located in eastern and central Hunan. The flood occurred mainly in northeast Hunan and north of central Hunan on 90s, which was the most serious flood disaster of early rice in the last 50 years in Hunan province, and had a high frequency during the whole growing period. After 2000, the main flood areas of early rice in transplantation-jointing stage and booting and heading stage were changed, the former increased the area of central Hunan, the latter increased the area from east to south of Hunan.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;中国气象科学研究院;湖南省气象局气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室;南京信息工程大学耶鲁-南京信息工程大学大气环境中心;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD20B02)资助
【分类号】：S511.31;S422

【参考文献】