有机葡萄与常规葡萄能源效率及环境效应比较研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 11:21

本文选题：有机生产方式　切入点：常规生产方式　出处：《浙江农林大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,农业生产活动对生态环境的影响越来越受到人们的关注。随着以大量消耗能源为特征的美国式现代农业的推进,农业生产对能源的依赖日益严重,使得其在保持高产出的同时加剧了全球范围内的环境污染、能源危机、食品安全危机等问题。由于人类长期遭受食品短缺的威胁,直到二战结束后,包括西方国家在内的多数国家,都未能摆脱食品短缺的危机,因而以美国为样本的现代农业在全球范围内得以扩张,在解决食品短缺方面发挥了积极作用。但现代农业生产中的化肥、农药、农膜、加工、包装、储藏及配送等无不以增加能耗为基础,从能量利用的角度看,美国农业被认为是人类发明的耕作方法中效率最低的一种。这种生产方式在市场化与全球化的推动下,使得上述问题日益突出。在这种形势下,将有机农业等环境友好型农业生产方式作为“替代农业”的呼声日益高涨。然而,有机农业能否带领农业走出美式农业困境,提高能源利用效率并减少环境污染,不同的学者基于对有机农业不同的认知以及考察方式进行了研究,但得出的结论却颇有争议。为了探索有机和常规生产方式在能源效率及环境效应方面的差异及长期表现,寻找当前农业发展路径及改进措施,本文用系统动力学方法构建复式模型,并基于杭州有机葡萄农庄和常规葡萄农庄实际调查数据进行仿真模拟,在此基础上对比分析二者环境效应差异及其长期变化趋势。研究结果显示,在相同产值水平下有机生产方式和常规生产方式下能源效率和葡萄园环境效应存在一定的差异。具体而言,葡萄有机生产在整个模拟期内单位产值能源消耗和温室气体排放比常规生产方式分别低37%-51%,22.49%-37.27%,而单位产量能源消耗有机葡萄园比常规葡萄园高1.16-1.34倍;葡萄有机生产在环境酸化效应负荷和富营养化负荷上与常规生产没有太大的差别;经济效益方面,葡萄有机生产前期盈利性较差,后期与常规生产方式相当。从长远来看,葡萄有机生产在环缓解能源消耗、温室效应、酸化效应及富营养化等环境压力具有一定的潜力。农业扶持政策模拟方面,政策实施农业贷款优惠政策和用地政策对于改善葡萄有机生产前期经济劣势的局面没有明显的政策效果,相对而言,农资成本补贴政策作为过渡性政策对于弥补有机生产前期经济上的劣势能够发挥积极的作用。
[Abstract]:At present, people pay more and more attention to the impact of agricultural production activities on the ecological environment. With the development of modern American agriculture, which is characterized by a large amount of energy consumption, agricultural production is increasingly dependent on energy. It keeps high output while exacerbating global environmental pollution, energy crisis, food security crisis and so on. Because of the threat of food shortage for a long time, until the end of World War II, Most countries, including the West, have failed to escape the crisis of food shortages, and modern agriculture, modelled on the United States, has expanded globally. But fertilizer, pesticide, film, processing, packaging, storage and distribution in modern agricultural production are all based on increasing energy consumption, from the perspective of energy use. Agriculture in the United States is considered one of the least efficient methods of farming invented by mankind. This mode of production, driven by marketization and globalization, has made these problems increasingly prominent. There is a growing demand for environmentally friendly agricultural production such as organic agriculture as "alternative agriculture". However, whether organic agriculture can lead agriculture out of the American agricultural dilemma, improve energy efficiency and reduce environmental pollution, In order to explore the differences in energy efficiency and environmental effects between organic and conventional modes of production, different scholars have studied the different cognition and investigation methods of organic agriculture, but the conclusions are quite controversial. Based on the investigation data of organic grape farm and conventional grape farm in Hangzhou, the method of system dynamics is used to construct the compound model and the simulation is carried out on the basis of the current path of agricultural development and improvement measures. On this basis, the differences of environmental effects between them and their long-term trends are compared and analyzed. The results show that, There are some differences in energy efficiency and vineyard environmental effect between organic production and conventional production at the same production value. In the whole simulation period, the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission per unit output value of grape organic production were 37% -51% lower than those of the conventional production mode, and 22.49 -37.27%, respectively, while the energy consumption per unit production of organic vineyard was 1.16-1.34 times higher than that of the conventional vineyard. There is no significant difference between organic grape production and conventional production in environmental acidification effect load and eutrophication load. In the aspect of economic benefit, the early stage of grape organic production is less profitable, and the latter stage is equal to the conventional production mode. In the long run, the grape organic production is similar to the conventional production mode in the long run. Organic grape production has potential to alleviate environmental pressures such as energy consumption, Greenhouse Effect, acidification effect and eutrophication. The policy implementation of preferential policies on agricultural loans and land use policies has no obvious policy effect on improving the situation of economic disadvantage in the early stage of organic grape production, but relatively speaking, As a transitional policy, the agricultural cost subsidy policy can play a positive role in making up for the economic disadvantage in the early stage of organic production.
【学位授予单位】：浙江农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S663.1;S181

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