西北五省农业碳排放测算及碳减排潜力研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 22:27

本文选题：农业碳排放　切入点：时空差异　出处：《江西农业大学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：碳减排潜力及潜在规模的测算作为制定减排政策和碳交易市场政策的前提。基于种植业活动、畜牧养殖、农田土壤和秸秆焚烧4个方面23类碳源,测算西北五省1995—2014年农业碳排放量,并进行时空差异分析。在此基础上,构建环境效率评估模型(SBM模型)求解目标函数最优值,并以此测算出西北五省农业碳减排潜力指数。结果表明:1995—2014年,陕西、甘肃、青海、新疆、宁夏农业碳排放量的年均增长率分别为1.71%、4.14%、-0.09%、3.77%、4.06%;相应的碳排放强度年均增长率分别为-9.08%、-5.57%、-9.94%、-6.57%、-7.14%;空间差异明显,碳排放量新疆陕西甘肃宁夏青海,新疆为青海的4.61倍;碳排放强度青海宁夏甘肃新疆陕西,陕西仅为青海的11/25;近20年,西北五省农业碳减排潜力省域差异明显,青海碳减排潜力高于其他四省,其次为新疆、宁夏、甘肃、陕西,其中陕西、宁夏碳减排潜力呈波动下降趋势,甘肃、青海、新疆碳减排潜力呈波动增加趋势。最后为西北五省制定相应的农业碳减排政策和减排补偿机制提供参考性建议。
[Abstract]:The calculation of carbon abatement potential and potential scale is the premise of making emission reduction policy and carbon trading market policy. Based on four aspects of planting activities, livestock farming, cropland soil and straw burning, 23 kinds of carbon sources are obtained. The carbon emissions from agriculture in five provinces of Northwest China from 1995 to 2014 were measured and analyzed in time and space. On the basis of this, an environmental efficiency assessment model was constructed to solve the optimal value of the objective function. Based on this, the agricultural carbon abatement potential index of five provinces in Northwest China has been calculated. The results show that from 1995 to 2014, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, The average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions in Ningxia is 1.71%, 4.14% -0.09% and 3.77% and 4.06% respectively; the corresponding average annual growth rate of carbon emission intensity is -9.08% -5.57% -9.94% -6.57% -7.14% respectively, the spatial difference is obvious, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang is 4.61 times as high as Qinghai; The intensity of carbon emissions in Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai, is only 11 / 25 of that in Qinghai. In the last 20 years, there are significant differences in the provincial areas of agricultural carbon abatement potential among the five northwest provinces, and Qinghai's carbon abatement potential is higher than that of the other four provinces, followed by Xinjiang, Ningxia, Gansu, Shaanxi, The carbon abatement potential of Shaanxi and Ningxia is fluctuating and decreasing, and the carbon abatement potential of Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang is increasing. Finally, some suggestions are provided for the development of agricultural carbon abatement policy and emission reduction compensation mechanism in five northwest provinces.
【作者单位】：新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71640031) 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B017)~~
【分类号】：F327;X71

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