水稻稻曲病气象等级预报模型及集成方法

发布时间：2018-03-21 14:12

  本文选题：水稻　切入点：稻曲病　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年17期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了提前1个月预报出水稻稻曲病发生的气象条件适宜程度,根据中长期预报原理,采用因子膨化滑动相关普查、空间拓扑和最优相关技术,筛选出对综合稻曲病指数影响最显著的预报因子,分别构建基于气象要素、海温因子、大气环流指数的预报模型,并对3种模型的预报结果采用算术平均、加权平均和多元回归方法进行集成。结果表明,建立的3种模型均通过了显著性检验,预报效果较为理想,经过集成后提高了单个模型的拟合精度和独立样本试报的准确性,其中多元回归集成的效果更好。因此,建立的稻曲病预报模型可投入业务使用,预报结果将为稻曲病防治工作提供较为充足的时间。
[Abstract]:In order to predict the suitable meteorological conditions of rice scab occurrence one month in advance, according to the principle of medium and long term forecast, the factor expansion sliding correlation survey, spatial topology and optimal correlation technique were adopted. The forecast models based on meteorological factors, sea surface temperature factors and atmospheric circulation index were constructed, and the results of the three models were calculated by arithmetic average. The results show that the three models have passed the significance test and the prediction effect is satisfactory. The fitting accuracy of the single model and the accuracy of the independent sample test are improved after the integration. Therefore, the forecast model can be put into operation, and the forecast result will provide sufficient time for the prevention and control of rice smut disease.
【作者单位】： 江苏省气象局;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号:GYHY201306035) 江苏省气象局科研基金(编号:KM201504)
【分类号】：S165.28;S435.111.4
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本文编号：1644202