中国富士苹果种植气候适宜区的年代际变化

发布时间：2018-04-01 09:03

本文选题：气候变化　切入点：富士苹果　出处：《生态学报》2016年23期

【摘要】：苹果是中国种植面积最大的水果,分析气候变化背景下其种植气候适宜区的年代际变化,可为合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化提供参考。基于中国主栽的富士苹果地理分布信息和1961—2010年中国区域2084个气象台站资料,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件,通过构建富士苹果种植分布与气候因子的关系模型,分析1961—2010年中国富士苹果种植分布的年代际变化特征及其对气候变化响应的敏感区。结果表明,气候变化导致中国富士苹果种植分布的气候界限和气候适宜区明显北移,其中气候适宜区范围伴有西扩趋势。富士苹果种植的各气候适宜区分布年代际变化特征明显,适宜气候种植面积显著增加,特别是1990s变化最为突出,2010s气候种植适宜面积较1960s增加36%。但高气候适宜区面积则呈年代际波动,2010s虽略高于1960s,但较1970s—1980s减少25%。富士苹果种植适宜区对气候变化响应最为敏感的地区主要分布在辽宁南部、鲁南、苏北、豫东南、黄土高原西北部和川陕接壤区。除热量条件外,年日照时数对富士苹果种植的气候适宜区面积影响显著,气候资源变化有助于富士苹果种植的气候适宜范围增加,但不利于高气候适宜区的稳定。
[Abstract]:The apple is the largest fruit planted in China. To analyze the decadal change of its suitable climate under the background of climate change, we can make rational use of climate resources. Based on the geographic distribution of Fuji apple planted in China and 2084 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2010, the maximum Entropy Model (Max Ent) and ArcGIS software are used. Based on the model of relationship between planting distribution and climate factors of Fuji apple, the decadal variation characteristics of Fuji apple planting distribution in China and the sensitive areas of its response to climate change from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. Climate change caused the climatic boundary and climate suitable area of Fuji apple planting in China to move northward, in which the climatic suitable area was accompanied by westward expansion. The planting area increased significantly in suitable climate. Especially in 1990 s, the climate suitable area in 2010 increased by 36% compared with 1960 s, but the area of high climate suitable area showed Interdecadal fluctuation. Although it was slightly higher than 1960 s, it was 25% less than 1970s-1980s. Fuji apple planting suitable area was the most responsive to climate change. Sensitive areas are mainly located in southern Liaoning, Southern Shandong, northern Jiangsu, southeast Henan, northwestern Loess Plateau and Sichuan and Shaanxi contiguous areas. In addition to heat conditions, annual sunshine hours have a significant impact on the area of climate suitable for Fuji apple planting. The change of climate resources is helpful to increase the suitable range of climate for Fuji apple planting, but it is not good for the stability of high climate suitable area.
【作者单位】：陕西省经济作物气象服务台;中国气象科学研究院;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2010CB951300) 中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M60);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201621)
【分类号】：S661.1;S162.55

【相似文献】