高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略评价——以甘南高原为例

发布时间：2018-04-03 06:13

本文选题：农户　切入点：气候变化　出处：《生态学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：气候变化加剧了高寒生态脆弱区农户的生计脆弱性,为应对气候变化,农户已采取了各种响应措施,当前急需评估农户所采取适应策略的效果,以便选择更有效的适应策略。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据分析了农户所采取适应策略的特征,采用模糊综合评价法分析现行适应策略的效果,并利用多准则决策模型确定了最优的气候变化适应策略。结果显示:(1)甘南高原农户多采取组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以调整+扩张型策略为主;(2)甘南高原农户所采取气候变化适应策略的效果较好,效益指数为3.43。其中,农区农户的适应策略效果最好、半农半牧区次之、纯牧区最差;(3)甘南高原不同区域农户筛选的最优策略存在差异。其中,纯牧区和半农半牧区农户筛选的最优策略为调整农牧业结构,而农区农户为完善农牧业基础设施。最后,提出了提高农户适应策略效果的对策建议及未来研究中需进一步关注的问题。
[Abstract]:Climate change has aggravated the livelihood vulnerability of farmers in the vulnerable areas of alpine ecology. In order to cope with climate change, farmers have taken various response measures. It is urgent to evaluate the effect of adaptation strategies adopted by farmers in order to choose more effective adaptation strategies.Taking the Gannan Plateau as the research area, based on the data of household survey, the characteristics of the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers were analyzed, and the effect of current adaptation strategies was analyzed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The optimal climate change adaptation strategy is determined by using the multi-criteria decision-making model.The results showed that: 1) the farmers in Gannan Plateau mostly adopted combination strategy to deal with climate change, especially the expansion strategy. 2) the effect of climate change adaptation strategy adopted by farmers in Gannan Plateau was better, and the benefit index was 3.43.Among them, farmers' adaptation strategies were the best in agricultural areas, followed by semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral areas, and worst in pure pastoral areas. (3) there were differences in the optimal strategies of farmers in different regions of Gannan Plateau.Among them, the optimal strategy for the screening of farmers in pure pastoral areas and semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral areas is to adjust the structure of agriculture and animal husbandry, while the farmers in agricultural areas are to improve the infrastructure of agriculture and animal husbandry.Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the effect of farmers' adaptation strategies are put forward and the problems needing further attention in future research are put forward.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106,41471116) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0910) 甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目
【分类号】：F323.6;S162

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