山西省农业干旱时空演变规律遥感研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 17:08

本文选题：农业干旱　切入点：演化规律　出处：《太原理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：干旱是人类面临的主要自然灾害，农业干旱是对农业生产影响最为严重的灾害之一，每年因干旱给农业带来的危害和损失远远超过了其它气象灾害，给我国粮食安全和社会稳定带来了极其严重的危害。山西省属于我国的干旱半干旱地区，有“十年九旱”之称。据史记载，干旱给山西省的农业生产造成很大困难。每年因干旱灾害带来的农业经济损失严重。及时、准确地监测山西省的农业干旱时空演化规律，可为制定防旱、抗旱、减旱措施和对策提供科学依据，为我省粮食安全提供技术保障。遥感技术因其具有实时、动态、快速、覆盖范围广等特点，克服了传统监测方法的缺点，被广泛应用干旱监测中。本论文在系统分析现有农业干旱遥感监测方法和模型优缺点的基础上，选用MODIS地表温度(MOD11A2)和植被指数(MOD13A2)数据，通过建立Ts-EVI特征空间，获得了2001-2014年山西省的温度植被旱情指数(TVDI)，建立了山西省农业干旱监测模型；通过分析TVDI与降水量、EVI、Ts的相关关系，验证了TVDI模型的可靠性，并利用其监测得到2001-2014年山西省农业干旱旱情信息。在此基础上，分别以月际和年际为尺度，分析了农业干旱的时间变化特征；根据TVDI分布，得到全省农业干旱在空间上的演变特征，最后得到2001-2014年山西省农业干旱的时空分布及演化规律。通过研究取得了以下主要结论： (1)在Ts-EVI特征空间模型中，每年12个月的干边拟合方程斜率大部分为负值，而湿边拟合方程斜率基本上是5-9月份为负值，其余月份为正值。 (2)温度植被旱情指数(TVDI)与降水量距平和增强型植被指数(EVI)均呈负相关性，与地表温度(Ts)呈正相关。 (3)山西省农业干旱空间分布状况：全省大部分处于干旱状况，整体上中南部及南部地区旱情略严重，山区好于盆地。全省较湿润的区域主要位于西部的吕梁山，东北部的恒山和五台山等山区；而全省旱情较严重的区域主要有北部的大同盆地、中部的太原盆地、东部阳泉市附近、东南部的长治盆地，以及西南部的临汾盆地和运城盆地等盆地，尤其是运城、临汾属于重旱。 (4)山西省农业干旱时间变化规律：月际方面，旱情在1-3月份加重，3-7月份减轻，7-12月份又加重，旱情最严重的月份为3月，旱情最轻的月份是7月；季节方面，，旱情重缓程度为是春季冬季秋季夏季；年际方面，山西省的干旱情况整体有所减缓。尤其是从2003-2007年这五年，旱情减缓趋势非常显著(TVDI降低0.03466/5a)。
[Abstract]:Drought is the main natural disaster faced by mankind. Agricultural drought is one of the most serious disasters affecting agricultural production. The damage and loss caused by drought to agriculture are far greater than other meteorological disasters every year.To our country food security and social stability brought extremely serious harm.Shanxi Province belongs to the arid and semi-arid area of our country.According to historical records, drought caused great difficulties to agricultural production in Shanxi Province.Agricultural economic losses caused by drought disasters are serious every year.Timely and accurate monitoring of the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province can provide scientific basis for the formulation of drought prevention, drought resistance, drought mitigation measures and countermeasures, and provide technical guarantee for grain security in our province.Remote sensing technology has been widely used in drought monitoring because of its real-time, dynamic, fast and wide coverage, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional monitoring methods.On the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the existing methods and models of agricultural drought remote sensing monitoring, this paper selects the data of MODIS surface temperature and vegetation index MOD13A2, and establishes the Ts-EVI feature space by using the data of MOD11A2) and vegetation index (MOD13A2).The temperature vegetation drought index of Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 is obtained, and the agricultural drought monitoring model of Shanxi Province is established, and the reliability of the TVDI model is verified by analyzing the correlation between TVDI and precipitation EVITs.The information of agricultural drought and drought in Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 was obtained by its monitoring.On this basis, the temporal variation characteristics of agricultural drought are analyzed on the scale of intermonth and interannual, and the spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural drought in the whole province are obtained according to the distribution of TVDI.Finally, the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 are obtained.The main conclusions are as follows:1) in the Ts-EVI feature space model, the slope of the dry edge fitting equation is mostly negative in 12 months of each year, while the slope of the wet edge fitting equation is negative in May and September, and the other months are positive.(2) there was a negative correlation between temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) and precipitation distance and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and a positive correlation with surface temperature (Ts).(3) the spatial distribution of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province: most of the province is in drought condition, the drought situation is a little serious in the central and southern part of the province as a whole, and the mountain area is better than the basin.The wetter regions of the province are mainly located in the western Luliangshan, the northeast Hengshan and Wutai mountains, while the more severe drought areas in the province are mainly the Datong basin in the north, the Taiyuan basin in the middle, and the Yangquan city in the east.The Changzhi basin in the southeast, and the Linfen basin and Yuncheng basin in the southwest, especially Yuncheng basin, belong to severe drought.(4) the temporal variation of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province: in terms of intermonthly drought, the drought increased in March and July, and then increased again in July and July. The most severe month of drought was March, and the lightest month of drought was July.The degree of drought relief is spring, winter, autumn and summer, and the drought situation in Shanxi Province as a whole has slowed down.Especially in the five years from 2003 to 2007, the trend of drought deceleration was very significant, and TVDI decreased by 0.03466 / 5a.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S127;S423

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